Abstract

Ambev SA will report its quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market, and investors anticipate softer headline revenue with resilient profitability metrics, while analysts’ ratings since August 2025 to February 05, 2026 lean bullish but include notable dissent.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections indicate Ambev SA’s current-quarter revenue near $3.77 billion, an estimated year-over-year decrease of 13.75%, with estimated EBIT at $1.23 billion (up 7.52% year-over-year), adjusted EPS at $0.05 (down 2.59% year-over-year), and management tracking to sustain margins supported by mix and pricing; if forecast data is missing, it is omitted. The main business is expected to maintain stable brand demand and favorable mix effects, benefiting gross margin resilience and operational efficiency through cost discipline and hedging. The most promising segment is anticipated to be premium and value-added beverages, with revenue guided to improve sequentially from prior quarter performance as distribution and channel execution strengthen; year-over-year data is included when provided.

Last Quarter Review

Ambev SA’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $3.83 billion, gross profit margin of 51.46%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $4.75 billion, net profit margin of 22.76%, and adjusted EPS of $0.04; year-over-year revenue decreased by 3.97%, EBIT increased by 4.20%, and adjusted EPS increased by 10.00%. A key highlight was EBIT outperformance versus street estimates, aided by disciplined pricing, favorable mix across core brands, and operating cost controls that helped offset input inflation. The main business segments collectively generated $3.83 billion in revenue, with year-over-year dynamics reflecting modest declines in certain regions counterbalanced by improvements in profitability; granular segment revenue breakdown was not disclosed in the returned dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core Beer and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

The core business is poised to navigate a softer topline backdrop with an estimated revenue of $3.77 billion, a 13.75% year-over-year decline, yet improving EBIT to $1.23 billion suggests firm operational leverage and margin protection. Key margin levers include sustained pricing discipline across premium and mainstream brands, portfolio mix management, and continued cost efficiencies, including procurement, logistics, and hedging strategies. The gross profit margin resilience observed last quarter at 51.46% provides a constructive baseline, indicating that material cost inflation pressures are being mitigated. Management’s operating framework implies focus on balancing volume recovery with profitability, and the net profit margin last quarter at 22.76% underpins the company’s capability to preserve earnings quality. If industry demand normalizes across key geographies and channels in the current quarter, the main business could display sequential stabilization even with a year-over-year revenue contraction.

Most Promising Business: Premium and Value-Added Beverages

The most promising area remains premium and value-added beverages, which typically command higher margins and benefit from brand equity, channel depth, and consumer trade-up in urban markets. While the dataset does not provide a granular segment revenue figure, sequential improvements are likely as distribution execution strengthens, supported by targeted marketing and enhanced on-premise activation. Premiumization tends to bolster gross margin and EBIT, which aligns with the current-quarter forecast indicating EBIT resilience despite revenue declines. The segment’s performance is also closely tied to cross-channel promotions and digital trade capabilities, which can enhance sell-through and limit discounting pressure. Year-over-year softness in the broader topline could still coincide with higher profitability contribution from premium, helping underpin adjusted EPS guidance around $0.05.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The primary drivers for Ambev SA’s stock this quarter will be the visibility and durability of margin resilience against a backdrop of softer demand, as captured by the forecast of EBIT up 7.52% year-over-year despite revenue down 13.75%. Investors will focus on whether gross profit margin can remain close to the 51.46% achieved last quarter, which would signal effective pricing and cost management in the face of input volatility. Another key factor is adjusted EPS delivery; consensus pegs $0.05, and any positive surprise versus last quarter’s $0.04 could re-anchor expectations for consistent earnings quality. Finally, the balance between volume trends and mix optimizations will influence sentiment, as a more rapid volume normalization could drive incremental upside. Clear visibility into channel performance and regional demand rebounds will be interpreted as catalysts, while any signs of price elasticities impacting volumes more than expected could trigger caution.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst views in the six-month window are mixed with a bullish majority: Evercore ISI maintained a Buy rating with a $4.00 price target, while Morgan Stanley reiterated a Sell in Brazil with a BRL11.50 target. The predominance of bullish stances centers on confidence in margin sustainability and operational execution, citing last quarter’s EBIT beat and improved adjusted EPS as evidence of effective pricing and cost controls. The bullish camp argues that rising EBIT in the face of revenue pressure highlights the company’s ability to optimize mix and preserve profitability, which could support a constructive EPS trajectory near $0.05 if gross margin remains robust. They also view channel expansion and premiumization strategies as key to ongoing earnings support, even as volumes face transitory headwinds. The bearish counterpoint emphasizes volume softness and currency translation risk; however, given the majority lean bullish, the market appears to assign higher value to earnings quality and margin resilience heading into the February 12, 2026 Pre-Market report.