On February 10th, following Monday's session, we noted that factors such as the prolonged and uncertain nature of US-Iran negotiations and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence continue to attract bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying, providing support for gold prices. Short-term technical indicators also suggested a need for a gold rebound. Consequently, for trading strategies, we recommended watching the support level at $4965, followed by $4930 and $4900, while observing resistance at $5050, then $5100 and $5200.
Reviewing the subsequent price action: during Monday's European session, gold encountered resistance at $5040, retreated to find support at $4982, and then fluctuated higher. After the US market opened, gold continued to rise, meeting resistance at $5081, pulling back to stabilize at $5041, and nearing the close, it climbed to encounter resistance at $5086, setting a new high for the day. At Tuesday's open, gold experienced a sharp decline of over $80, finding a base at $4988, but it quickly rebounded and has since been trading within a range of $5010 to $5060, currently hovering around $5050. Overall, gold extended its rebound from the previous Friday into Monday, aligning largely with our expectations.
Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that last week's US-Iran talks, preceded by a US emergency security alert urging departures from Iran and followed by Iranian hints at the talks' protracted and uncertain nature, alongside the US Treasury Secretary's remarks not ruling out a criminal investigation into the Fed Chair under specific circumstances—which raised market concerns about Federal Reserve independence and weighed on the US dollar—boosted safe-haven demand. This helped gold rebound from its lows on Friday and continue climbing on Monday. However, the upward movement was constrained by an easing of Middle East tensions, as the risk of direct conflict between the US and Iran significantly decreased post-negotiations, coupled with a recovery in market risk appetite and further gains in US stocks, which diminished gold's safe-haven appeal.
On the daily chart, gold's rebound from last Friday's lows has met temporary resistance this week, with the price operating near the upper end of a broad consolidation range, awaiting a breakout signal. Key support levels to watch include $5010, where the price found support after several pullbacks during Tuesday's session, and $4965, the level from which Monday's rally originated and also near where gold surged briefly before Friday's close. Resistance is observed around the psychological $5100 level, which gold has approached multiple times recently with limited pullbacks, suggesting a potential breakout opportunity. A break above this level could open the path towards $5200. The 5-day moving average is turning up from a bearish crossover, the MACD indicator is showing a slight upward turn, the KDJ indicator is beginning to form a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicator is also turning upward from a bearish crossover. Short-term technical indicators point to ongoing rebound potential for gold.
Intraday gold outlook: Although the short-term rebound faces resistance, supported by bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying, gold remains trading near the high end of a broad range, with potential for an upward breakout. Trading strategy suggests a range-trading approach, monitoring support at $5010, followed by $4965, and resistance at $5100, then $5200.