BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that the unexpectedly strict tightening of polysilicon energy consumption standards reflects the government's firm determination to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, using elevated technical standards as the primary means to eliminate backward production capacity. The firm remains optimistic about the advancement of "anti-involution" efforts in the PV industry, with GCL TECH (03800), the granular silicon leader with the lowest energy consumption, as their top pick.
The report noted that on September 16, the "Energy Consumption Limits per Unit Product for Polysilicon and Germanium" was published, stipulating comprehensive energy consumption limits for rod-shaped silicon grades 1/2/3 at 5/5.5/6.4 kgce/kg respectively, representing a significant tightening compared to the 5/6/7.5 kgce/kg figures disclosed at an industry meeting on July 24.
After the formal implementation of these standards, companies that fail to meet grade 3 standards will be given a limited time for rectification. Those that fail to make improvements within the deadline or fail to meet grade 2 standards after rectification will be shut down. According to preliminary statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch, domestic polysilicon effective capacity will decline to approximately 2.4 million tons, a substantial 31.4% reduction from the completed capacity of 3.5 million tons.