UK Gilt Yields Continue Hitting Historic Highs as Fiscal Sustainability Concerns Fuel Selling Wave

Deep News
Sep 03

The UK sovereign bond market continues experiencing turbulent trading, with 30-year gilt yields climbing to 5.747%, the highest level since 1998, while 10-year yields reached 4.860%, a seven-and-a-half-month peak. The selling wave has persisted following Tuesday's sharp rally, with London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data showing the UK long-bond yield curve steepening at the fastest pace since the 2022 mini-budget crisis.

Market analysts note that while this sell-off aligns with global bond market adjustments, UK bonds are particularly vulnerable—with public debt reaching 104% of GDP and CPI inflation persisting at 3.2% above the Bank of England's target, both factors undermining investor confidence. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, seeking to address fiscal gaps, is evaluating the feasibility of introducing new taxes in the autumn budget, with this policy uncertainty further exacerbating bond market volatility.

Notably, the UK Debt Management Office plans to issue £277.8 billion in government bonds this fiscal year, representing a 45% year-over-year surge. Market concerns about the capacity to absorb this massive bond supply, combined with the interaction between inflation persistence and fiscal expansion policies, are reshaping the risk premium pricing logic for UK gilts.

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