CMB International released a research report indicating that retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February 2026 are projected to decline by 15% month-over-month to approximately 480,000 units. Cumulative retail sales for January and February fell 23% year-over-year to around 1 million units. Following the halving of the purchase tax incentive starting January 2026, the bank estimates the market share of new energy vehicles may have dropped to about 40% in the first two months of the year. With the launch of additional new energy models, CMB International anticipates a rebound in market share beginning in March. Key viewpoints from the report are as follows:

Li Auto and Nio met expectations, while XPeng fell short. Li Auto delivered approximately 26,000 vehicles in February, outperforming most peers, primarily driven by contributions from the i6 model launched in late September 2025. The bank believes market reception of the new-generation L series, set for release in the second quarter, will be crucial for Li Auto to achieve its annual sales target of over 500,000 units. XPeng's February deliveries dropped 24% month-over-month to about 15,000 units, below the bank's previous expectations. Despite launching multiple new extended-range models over the past four months, XPeng's cumulative sales for January-February fell 42% year-over-year to roughly 35,000 units. Nio delivered around 21,000 vehicles in February, with the Nio brand contributing approximately 15,000 units. Although Nio achieved positive non-GAAP net profit for the first time in Q4 2025, the bank expects the company to continue facing challenges in 2026.

BYD and Geely demonstrate export resilience; Leapmotor to launch A10 in March. BYD reported wholesale sales of approximately 188,000 passenger vehicles in February, with cumulative wholesale sales for January-February reaching about 393,000 units. The bank expects BYD to follow its usual practice of launching a large number of new models featuring latest technologies in March, which could serve as a positive catalyst for its stock price. Benefiting from contributions from the Zeekr brand, Geely's new energy vehicle wholesale sales (including Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co) increased 10% year-over-year in the first two months of 2026. Given positive market feedback on new models, the bank forecasts Geely's sales will remain resilient in the coming months. Leapmotor reported wholesale sales of around 28,000 units in February, with cumulative sales for January-February totaling approximately 60,000 units. After achieving consecutive years of sales doubling in 2024 and 2025, and supported by a more comprehensive model lineup (new A-series and D-series) and continued value-for-money strategy, Leapmotor has set a 2026 sales target of 1 million units, representing a 68% year-over-year increase.