Good morning. Let's start with the latest geopolitical developments.
Former President Donald Trump stated that he has not yet made a final decision on whether to use military force. He expressed a desire to reach an agreement with Iran and revealed that further negotiations between the U.S. and Iran would take place. Trump indicated he is "not satisfied" with Iran’s performance in nuclear talks and plans to hold more discussions to "see what happens." When asked about potential military action, he remarked that he does not want to take that step but sometimes has no choice, emphasizing that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
As tensions escalate, multiple countries have issued security advisories. The Chinese embassies in Iran and Israel urged Chinese citizens to closely monitor the security situation. The U.S. State Department updated its travel warning for Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, maintaining a Level 3 "Reconsider Travel" advisory and authorizing the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and their families from Israel. The U.S. ambassador to Israel advised those planning to leave to do so immediately.
The British government announced the temporary withdrawal of embassy staff from Iran due to security concerns. Canada urged its citizens to leave Iran without delay. Greece, France, Poland, Kazakhstan, and Cyprus also issued warnings, advising against travel to Iran, Israel, and other parts of the Middle East. The Netherlands raised its travel advisory for certain Middle Eastern regions to the highest level.
An Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson stated that the military is closely monitoring the situation in Iran, maintaining high alert and readiness to ensure public safety.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ford has arrived in Israel, joining the USS Lincoln, marking the deployment of two carriers in the Middle East. The Ford is expected to dock near Haifa in northern Israel. Additionally, nearly 20 U.S. refueling aircraft have been stationed in Israel.
Iran’s military warned that any U.S. aggression would be met with a "devastating" response. A spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces stated that they are closely tracking U.S. and Israeli movements in the region and are fully prepared, cautioning that any reckless action could trigger a large-scale conflict.
In international markets, silver prices surged, with spot silver in London rising 6.15% and silver futures in New York gaining 7.77%. Gold prices also climbed, with spot gold up 1.77% and gold futures rising 1.97%. Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures increased by over 3%.
Rapeseed futures saw strong gains, with the main contract rising over 4% intraday to close at 5,891 yuan per ton, recovering most of the losses from early this month.
Analysts attribute the rally in rapeseed futures to two factors: strong performance in soybean futures due to reduced grain supplies, which lifted rapeseed prices as a substitute, and a projected nearly 60% year-on-year decline in China’s rapeseed imports for the first quarter of 2026. Full-year imports in 2025 fell 60.79% to 2.5036 million tons, tightening domestic supply.
On the policy front, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to anti-discrimination measures, exempting certain Canadian imports, including rapeseed meal, from additional tariffs. However, the announcement did not mention rapeseed oil or rapeseed itself, which previously faced a 75.8% anti-dumping duty. This move is expected to restore rapeseed meal trade between China and Canada, increasing imports in the second quarter. While rapeseed meal prices may see a moderate rebound, the overall inventory buildup may limit significant gains. In the medium term, rapeseed supply is expected to remain tight until the new domestic harvest in May.
An agricultural analyst noted that the global rapeseed market is at a critical juncture in 2026, influenced by factors such as improved China-Canada relations, recovery in Ukrainian production, stable EU output, and renewed Chinese imports. Biofuel demand is also supporting vegetable oil prices. In the short term, tight supply and delayed imports may push prices higher, but increased arrivals of Canadian shipments could later exert downward pressure. Over the long term, global supply is ample, but domestic availability may remain constrained due to logistical and trade adjustments, maintaining a tight balance.