Abstract

Ferguson Plc. will report results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to modest year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings, while investors watch margin execution and segment mix to gauge the sustainability of the recovery into calendar 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the upcoming quarter points to revenue of USD 7.23 billion, implying 6.88% year-over-year growth, EBIT of USD 0.52 billion, up 9.85% year over year, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.79, up 11.91% year over year. Forecasts emphasize incremental operating improvement and earnings leverage on modest top-line expansion, while margin forecasts are not explicitly provided.

The main business mix remains centered on Commercial, Residential, and Industrial end markets, with the latest reported quarter indicating a balanced revenue base that can provide diversification benefits into the current print. Among these, Commercial stands as the largest revenue contributor at USD 1.16 billion in the last reported quarter; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed in the dataset, though consensus suggests a mild improvement in blended growth rates at the enterprise level.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Ferguson Plc. delivered revenue of USD 8.17 billion (up 5.11% year over year), a gross profit margin of 30.68%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.57 billion, a net profit margin of 6.98%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.84 (up 15.92% year over year).

A notable financial highlight was operating performance relative to expectations: EBIT landed at USD 0.81 billion versus a consensus estimate of USD 0.77 billion, reflecting 14.45% year-over-year growth and an earnings beat in absolute terms that underscored effective cost control and operating discipline. On the business mix, Commercial generated USD 1.16 billion, Residential USD 1.09 billion, and Industrial USD 0.54 billion in the latest reported quarter, with overall company revenue up 5.11% year over year and Commercial leading in absolute revenue contribution.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Operations: Pricing, Mix, and Cost Control

The core operating picture this quarter is framed by a consensus path of mid-single digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth year over year. The gap between revenue and EPS growth implies that margin management and operating leverage remain central to the investment case for this print. With the prior quarter showing a 30.68% gross margin and a 6.98% net margin, the focus now shifts to whether favorable mix and disciplined operating expenses can preserve, or gradually enhance, profitability as volume trends stabilize.

Pricing discipline will be a key swing variable. Even modest net price carryover can amplify gross profit dollars given the company’s scale, provided product and customer mix does not skew toward lower-margin categories. Mix management within the Commercial, Residential, and Industrial baskets can affect gross margin trajectory more than headline volume; maintaining a healthy skew toward higher-value solution bundles, projects, or specialty lines tends to support margin resilience, while an unfavorable tilt toward lower-value commodity items can compress gross margins. Operating expense control also matters: last quarter’s EBIT outperformance versus estimate suggests internal execution was solid, and the market will look for continuity in labor productivity, logistics efficiency, and branch-level operating metrics.

The path from revenue growth of 6.88% year over year to EPS growth of 11.91% requires conversion that is consistent with recent performance. That conversion can be achieved through tight working capital stewardship, which can curb logistics and inventory-related costs, and through sustained SG&A discipline, which can protect EBIT even if revenue flow-through is uneven within the quarter. With EBIT forecast to grow 9.85% year over year to USD 0.52 billion, investors will likely parse segment sales cadence and commentary around price-cost spread to infer whether margin improvement is structural or seasonal.

Commercial Segment: Largest Revenue Contributor and Near-Term Growth Candidate

Commercial, at USD 1.16 billion in the most recently reported quarter, remains the largest single contributor by absolute revenue in the disclosed mix. Given its scale and sensitivity to project timelines, this segment’s performance can materially influence consolidated revenue and margin conversion. The anticipated enterprise-level revenue growth indicates a supportive backdrop, and the Commercial book’s stability or expansion can help validate consensus assumptions for EBIT and EPS growth.

Revenue quality in the Commercial segment matters as much as quantity. Higher-complexity orders and solution-oriented sales typically carry healthier gross margins than purely transactional items. If recent order intake and backlog in Commercial remain intact, the segment can underpin blended gross profit dollar growth even if blended gross margin mixes near the prior quarter’s 30.68%. Execution risk lies in timing: any delays or deferrals in larger projects can shift revenue across quarters, affecting reported cadence. However, the diversified Commercial footprint can provide a buffer, distributing performance across multiple verticals and geographies.

For the current print, watch for commentary on order conversion rates and lead times within Commercial. Stable or improving conversion tends to translate into consistent revenue recognition and fewer surprises on the EBIT line. Should management signal tighter execution around logistics and procurement, it would support the consensus EBIT growth of 9.85% year over year and the EPS trajectory of 11.91%. Conversely, if conversions slow, the company may need to rely more heavily on cost containment to deliver the implied EPS growth.

Residential and Industrial: Volume Stabilization and Margin Sensitivity

Residential, with USD 1.09 billion in the last reported quarter, provides a large and steady revenue base that can help offset variability in Commercial. The key determinant here is underlying demand stability across replacement, repair, and smaller project work, which typically exhibits more frequent turnover and faster revenue cycles. When volumes hold steady, margin protection often depends on maintaining disciplined pricing and minimizing discounting in local markets.

Industrial, at USD 0.54 billion, is the smallest of the three disclosed categories but can contribute meaningfully to product mix and margin dynamics. Depending on customer mix and product selection, Industrial orders can bring a higher share of technical parts and value-added services, supporting gross margin dollars even when volumes are moderate. Monitoring attachment rates of higher-margin components and cross-selling into adjacent product families will offer clues on how this segment contributes to consolidated margins.

The combined performance of Residential and Industrial can determine how much margin flexibility management has to absorb any idiosyncratic swings in Commercial. If Residential turns in consistent day-to-day volume and Industrial maintains attachment rates, it can reduce volatility in consolidated gross profit dollars. This, in turn, can support the forecast path of EBIT growth to USD 0.52 billion and EPS to USD 1.79, allowing a smoother translation from revenue to earnings.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Margins, Mix, and Operating Beat/Miss Risk

Stock-price reaction is likely to pivot on margin signals and the degree to which earnings convert from sales. With gross margin last reported at 30.68% and net margin at 6.98%, investors will look for qualitative and quantitative cues that these levels can be sustained or improved on a year-over-year basis. Any upward commentary or evidence of improved mix could reinforce the notion that double-digit EPS growth is achievable on mid-single digit revenue expansion; shortfalls or cautious language on pricing could have an outsized impact on the share move.

Consensus already embeds a sequential step-down in absolute earnings versus the strong prior quarter, which makes the surprise bands tighter. A revenue figure close to USD 7.23 billion combined with EBIT near USD 0.52 billion and EPS around USD 1.79 would likely be interpreted as “in-line,” shifting market attention to forward-looking commentary and cadence into the next quarter. Conversely, a beat on EBIT or EPS driven by better operating expense control and favorable mix would reinforce the operating discipline flagged last quarter and could attract incremental multiple support.

Finally, color on cash generation and working capital could influence sentiment. While detailed cash flow expectations are not part of the visible consensus in the dataset, confirmation of stable inventory turns and receivables collections typically supports confidence in earnings quality. The market could also parse management’s remarks on capital deployment—especially if operating trends enable continued investment in organic initiatives—since such signals often guide valuation frameworks beyond a single quarter’s print.

Analyst Opinions

Within the monitored period from January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026, newly published, attributable analyst previews specific to Ferguson Plc.’s imminent quarter were limited across public channels tracked, resulting in an absence of fresh, citable bull-bear ratios. In practical terms, that means the majority-vs-minority breakdown cannot be reliably computed from the available items in this date window, and no new rating changes or preview notes were identified that would credibly shift sentiment during this period.

Despite the muted flow of new sell-side commentary in the window, the market’s consensus numbers for revenue, EBIT, and EPS point to a constructive expectation set: mid-single digit revenue growth and near double-digit EBIT growth, translating into a double-digit EPS advance year over year. That alignment between revenue, profit, and EPS trajectories typically suggests analysts anticipate stable pricing and cost control. For investors, the implied message is that absent a macro shock or sudden volume downdraft, the company is positioned to deliver within a fairly tight band of outcomes, with upside tied to margin execution and mix.

In this context, the practical takeaway ahead of the Pre-Market report on February 24, 2026 is that the analytical community, while not issuing visible new notes in the specified period, appears comfortable with a measured improvement narrative embedded in consensus. The focus of institutional debate is likely to center on the quality of margin delivery—gross margin stability around prior-quarter levels and operating expense trends—rather than on the headline revenue number alone. A stronger-than-expected translation of revenue to EBIT and EPS would likely be interpreted as confirmation of operating leverage, while any slippage in mix or expense control would challenge the implied double-digit EPS growth and could draw a more cautious recalibration of forward estimates.