Gold: Entering 2026, the gold market faces declining real yields, elevated government spending, and sustained structural demand from central banks. Major banks forecast prices between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions persist.
Silver: After surging nearly 150% in 2025 and breaking key resistance, silver has entered a price-discovery phase. A fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits and accelerating industrial demand support expectations for prices above $65 per ounce.
Energy: Supply growth is outpacing demand, with U.S. crude projected to average $59 per barrel in 2026. Non-OPEC supply expansion is three times demand growth, while technical indicators reinforce bearish signals.
Gold: Can the Rally Continue After 2025’s Record Highs? Beyond Supply and Demand Gold enters 2026 with momentum from a historic multi-year rally, yet market participation remains surprisingly thin. Despite back-to-back record highs in 2024–2025, gold is often labeled "overbought" but rarely "overheld." This distinction is critical—institutional positioning still has room to expand, suggesting the rally is driven by structural demand rather than speculation.
Policy uncertainty remains a key driver. In 2026, the U.S. confronts persistent inflation, softening real yields, and a weaker dollar—factors that continue to support gold. The metal’s sensitivity to macro conditions was evident in 2025, as falling real yields from June to December propelled prices to new highs.
Central Bank Demand Central banks remain the strongest pillar of structural demand. While some hold over 50% of reserves in gold, others (like Japan) allocate single digits. This imbalance signals vast reallocation potential.
Turkey, Russia, India, and Middle Eastern economies are redefining reserve strategies, treating gold as long-term diversification rather than short-term hedging. Purchases have accelerated, underscoring that central bank demand is structural, not cyclical.
Risks A hawkish Fed pivot poses the primary threat, as sharply rising real yields historically dampen gold’s momentum—even temporarily. However, markets still expect more easing than tightening, given U.S. refinancing needs and uneven growth.
2026 Outlook Banks’ average price target is $4,500–$4,700, with $5,000 possible if macro conditions stay loose. Crisis scenarios aren’t priced in, but geopolitical shocks or financial stress could trigger sharper rallies. Gold doesn’t need chaos to rise—it thrives on debt, policy uncertainty, and a less dominant dollar.
Silver: The Breakout Finally Arrives A Game-Changing Surge Silver enters 2026 transformed. After breaking $55/oz in late 2025 and holding $50–$54 as a base, it shed its "forgotten asset" label to become one of commodities’ most explosive stories. A 150% annual gain and a record high of $72.68/oz signal the market now acknowledges deepening structural deficits.
Supply Squeeze China’s exchange inventories hit decade lows amid record exports. With mine supply lagging and deficits stretching into a fifth year, tightness may become the new norm. Most new production won’t arrive until 2027–2028.
Industrial Demand Accelerates Solar panels alone consume over 200M oz annually. EVs, semiconductors, 5G, and AI data centers further steepen demand curves. Silver has no viable substitutes—performance suffers when alternatives are used.
Technical Breakout The $50–$54 resistance, held for 13 years, has been decisively breached. Weekly closes above $54 open the path to $72 and $88, based on measured moves from the long consolidation.
Gold/Silver Ratio The ratio has retreated to a key trendline where silver historically outperforms gold. Even at current levels, it remains above long-term averages (40–60), suggesting substantial upside if the ratio reverts.
2026 Outlook Banks conservatively target $56–$65, but technical models suggest $72–$88 or higher if the ratio contracts further. With tight supply, robust demand, and a confirmed breakout, silver offers asymmetric upside.
Oil: From Balanced Narrative to Supply-Driven Slump Bearish Sentiment Takes Hold The oil market’s 2026 outlook has flipped from tight to oversupplied. OPEC+ data shows ample supply through next year, while non-OPEC output grows three times faster than demand. U.S. policy is unlikely to intervene, leaving little to counter the glut.
Technical Weakness Brent and WTI have traded in steady downtrends since early 2025, with lower highs and broken support confirming structural bearishness. RSI struggles to sustain neutral levels, indicating weak rallies rather than oversold conditions.
2026 Outlook Supply dominance and slowing demand leave oil without bullish catalysts. Geopolitical risks may cap declines, but sustained oversupply could push Brent toward $30 if: non-OPEC output surges, OPEC+ doesn’t cut, demand stagnates, and inventories remain high. While not the base case, this tail risk can’t be ignored.