ANTA SPORTS delivered a better-than-expected retail performance for the first quarter of 2026. The ANTA main brand rebounded from a low-single-digit decline in the previous quarter to high-single-digit growth, while FILA accelerated to low-double-digit growth. Brands such as DESCENTE, KOLON SPORT, and MAIA also maintained rapid expansion of 40%-55%. Both inventory and discount levels remained stable.
According to analysis, Goldman Sachs Asia analyst Michelle Cheng noted in a report that despite the first-quarter performance significantly exceeding the full-year guidance, management has chosen to maintain the original targets—retail sales growth for the ANTA main brand is expected to be greater than low-single digits, FILA in the mid-single digits, and other brands above 20%.
Management's rationale is that the strong first quarter was partly benefited by consumption brought forward due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday; post-holiday sales have already slowed, and macroeconomic uncertainties persist. However, management also stated that if the second-quarter trend continues, a review of the full-year outlook is not off the table. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a target price of HK$108, implying approximately 31% upside from the current share price.
Looking at the upcoming months, the May Day holiday and the 618 shopping festival are key windows to verify whether the positive trend can be sustained. ANTA's online category adjustments, particularly in footwear, are not yet complete. Management prefers to finalize these adjustments ahead of the Double Eleven shopping festival, meaning the full potential of online channels has not yet been fully realized. Additionally, recent insider share purchases have been viewed by the market as a confidence signal.
It is worth noting that raw material cost pressures have been incorporated into the company's risk scenario analysis. In a worst-case scenario where oil and petrochemical prices remain high, the company estimates that cost of sales could increase by 3-5%, with the impact concentrated mainly in footwear. Management believes that the company's high-margin structure provides stronger buffering capacity than peers, and any impact would not be reflected in product costs until the first quarter of 2027 at the earliest.
FILA's rebound appears more substantial than expected. FILA's retail sales growth accelerated from mid-single digits in the fourth quarter to low-double digits in the first quarter, against a relatively high base—growth was in the high-single digits during the same period last year. CEO Jiang Yan explicitly attributed this performance to the execution of the new strategy: sponsoring the Winter Olympics and Milan Fashion Week at the brand level, refreshing core SKUs at the product level, and upgrading store formats at the channel level.
The market's primary concern regarding FILA was whether the brand's growth had reached a ceiling. First-quarter data shows FILA's online growth reached low-double digits, with its classic series achieving high-double-digit growth, while offline sub-brands also showed comprehensive improvement. The discount rate remained stable year-on-year, inventory was below five months, and pricing discipline showed no signs of loosening. Management's confidence level in FILA is rated as "high," second only to DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT.
The recovery of the ANTA main brand is not yet complete. The rebound exceeded expectations, but there are diverging trends. Adult offline channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate, children's wear offline at a high-single-digit rate, and online overall at a mid-double-digit rate—suggesting the three-pillar structure has largely recovered. The "Lighthouse Store" project is considered the core driver for improving offline efficiency. The company plans to add approximately 200 Lighthouse Stores this year, reaching 500 stores by year-end, with an additional 100 lightweight versions also being rolled out.
Footwear, particularly the running category, is an area management openly acknowledges as a weakness. Against the backdrop of Nike's Greater China sales still declining by approximately 10% year-on-year, ANTA views Nike's more rational pricing strategy positively, believing it helps improve the overall discount environment in the industry. However, management soberly pointed out that whether discounts can continue to narrow ultimately depends on end-demand and the competitive landscape, and cannot be determined by a single brand alone.
The group of smaller brands represents the true growth flywheel. The performance of DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT was the highlight of this earnings report—the former grew 30-35%, exceeding internal expectations, with discounts below 10%; the latter grew 50-55%, with inventory under four months. Management's confidence in these two brands is the highest; their premium positioning provides natural insulation from discount competition.
MAIA is still in its incubation phase. Behind its 30-35% growth, the three pilot stores achieved an average monthly sales revenue of RMB 1 million. The company's approach is to prioritize building brand equity over pursuing short-term sales scale. Jack Wolfskin and MAIA are expected to continue weighing on overall profits in 2026 but are projected to contribute positively to profits by 2027. As for Puma, the timing of its impact depends on the progress of any potential transaction.
The logic for overseas expansion has become more concrete. Southeast Asia and Australia-New Zealand are the main current battlegrounds for overseas expansion, with North America and Europe characterized as "long-term布局" (long-term positioning). The target set in mid-2025—opening 1,000 stores in ASEAN markets within three years—remains valid. Meanwhile, ANTA has partnered with Indian retailer Brandman Retail, planning to open stores in major Indian cities by 2026. This marks ANTA's first substantive move into the South Asian market.
Overall, ANTA's first-quarter data demonstrates the adaptability of its multi-brand portfolio across different demand scenarios. The key question remains: Can this momentum continue into the second and third quarters, or was the first-quarter outperformance merely a one-time benefit from the Lunar New Year timing? Management's choice not to raise guidance until the answer is clearer is, in itself, a piece of information.