Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On February 23rd, analysis of gold market drivers: During the US trading session last Friday, February 20th, international gold prices rose significantly, supported by weaker-than-expected US Q4 GDP data. Additionally, a US Supreme Court ruling rejecting the former Trump administration's broad tariff plan introduced medium-to-long-term uncertainty regarding trade policy into the market. Spot gold increased by 1.37% intraday to $5,064.5 per ounce, while COMEX gold reached $5,085 per ounce, a gain of 1.76%. Against a backdrop of uncertain economic growth prospects and significant variables in trade policy, gold's safe-haven attributes continue to be activated. This is the core reason for its independent strength even as US stocks rise and the US dollar experiences short-term fluctuations, rather than being driven solely by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Furthermore, in an environment where interest rates are expected to remain relatively high for an extended period and economic uncertainty is increasing, the value of gold as an asset allocation is further highlighted.
Gold Technical Analysis: From a daily chart perspective, after a period of high-level consolidation, gold found support upon retreating to the $4,950 area and exhibited a technical rebound. The price remains within an overall ascending trend channel, indicating the medium-term structure is still intact. Regarding the moving average system, the gold price is holding above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are arranged in a bullish formation, suggesting a solid trend foundation. A firm hold above the key $5,000 level could pave the way for further challenges towards the $5,130 and $5,160 zones. Momentum indicators show the RSI hovering around 60, indicating bullish momentum remains dominant but has not entered extreme overbought territory. The MACD remains above the zero line, although its histogram shows slight convergence, hinting that the pace of the advance may be slowing. A break below the crucial $5,000 support could lead to a short-term test of the $4,950 and $4,900 areas. However, as long as price holds above $5,000, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading strategy, the primary approach is to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is focused in the $5,200-$5,250 zone, while key short-term support below lies in the $5,100-$5,050 range.
Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Analysis of crude oil market drivers: Oil prices showed strong performance last week, with both major benchmark crudes accumulating gains of over 5%. Influenced by escalating tensions between Iran and the US, Brent crude futures saw short-covering late Friday, ultimately closing higher at $71.76 per barrel. US crude futures settled at $66.39 per barrel, down $0.06. Investor concerns are centered on potential US military action against Iran, amid pressure from the US administration for Iran to halt its nuclear weapons development. The oil market is currently experiencing a disconnect that puzzles traders: despite expectations of significant global supply surplus, prices remain firm due to geopolitical risks. Estimates suggest a daily supply surplus of approximately 1.5 million barrels for the market, yet this has not led to sustained price declines so far this year. Crude oil futures are being supported by a geopolitical risk premium.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, crude oil is gradually forming a potential rounding top pattern. Price action shows K-lines beginning to be pressured by the short-term moving averages, maintaining a slightly weak and oscillating bias. The price is currently trading near the previous support zone, but the strength and continuity of any rebound have been limited. Caution is warranted for a possible minor breakdown on the daily chart that could lead to a continuation of the downward movement. On the hourly chart, the current trading range has compressed significantly; attention should be paid to the short-term adjustment and consolidation phase. Overall, for today's crude oil trading strategy, the primary approach is to consider buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is monitored in the $67.5-$68.5 range, while key short-term support below is watched in the $64.5-$63.5 zone.