Alibaba Stock Is Volatile After China’s Lunar New Year. Why There’s More to Come

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Alibaba, Baidu and other Chinese stocks had a volatile return to trading following the Lunar New Year break. There could be more to come this week.

Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed shares jumped 3.4% Monday after slumping 5% Friday as the region’s stock market reopened following a three-day closure. Baidu rose 3.2% after a 6% drop in the previous session, while ecommerce retailer JD.com climbed 4% after slipping 2%. Alibaba’s American depositary receipts closed a touch lower Friday, recovering after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Market volatility could persist as Alibaba is expected to soon release its fiscal third-quarter earnings.

Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet are expecting earnings of $1.68 cents a share on revenue of $42 billion in revenue—a 9% jump from the year ago period. After its last earnings report, Alibaba stock dropped despite reporting higher revenue than expected and robust AI growth.

Alibaba has historically undergone sharp price swings after the Lunar New Year. In 2025, for instance, its Hong Kong listing posted a 13.3% gain between the end of the holiday and the five days after the holiday. Its ADRs, meanwhile, notched a 7.8% increase over the same period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

In fact, the ADRs of five major Chinese companies — electric vehicle makers NIO and Li Auto, ecommerce giantsJD.comand Alibaba, and tech company Baidu—posted smaller gains in the five trading days following the Lunar New Year holiday than their Hong Kong–listed counterparts.

In Li Auto’s case, for example, average price gains on the Hong Kong exchange were more than double the increase observed by its ADRs over the period—or 15.7% versus 6.9%, over the past four years.

Still, ADR prices could still face sharp swings next week. Investors would do well to heed the old Confucian proverb: “Be prudent and exercise caution.”

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