CICC has issued a research report stating that, considering the commercial performance of Innovent Biologics (01801), it has raised its 2025 revenue forecast by 5.0% to RMB 12.6 billion. Due to the impact of the Takeda collaboration payment in 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders forecast for 2026 has been increased by 274% to RMB 6.68 billion, while introducing a 2027 net profit forecast of RMB 4.14 billion. The firm maintains an Outperform rating. Despite recent downward pressure on valuations for innovative drugmakers, based on a DCF model, the target price is kept unchanged at HK$118.3, implying a potential upside of 48.06% from the current share price.
Key points from CICC are as follows: The company has indicated 2025 product revenue of approximately RMB 11.9 billion, representing year-on-year growth of about 45%. Fourth-quarter product revenue was around RMB 3.3 billion, increasing over 60% year-on-year, meeting expectations. As the company accounted for inventory adjustments for six new products first included in the 2026 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) in Q4, it is estimated that excluding this effect, actual Q4 revenue growth would have been more pronounced, slightly exceeding expectations, primarily driven by new product volume.
This marks the first time the company's product revenue has exceeded RMB 10 billion, with innovative products fueling robust growth. According to the company's announcements, by the end of 2025, its oncology portfolio had expanded to 13 products. Among these, based on partner Eli Lilly's financial reports, revenue for sintilimab reached $551 million in 2025, up approximately 5% year-on-year. Several potential blockbuster products from the company's comprehensive pipeline were approved for market launch in 2025, including mazdutide, teptelimab, and picankibart, which are expected to have contributed significantly to 2025 revenue.
Seven products were newly added to the NRDL, providing clear momentum for 2026 performance. According to company announcements, new indications for sintilimab, along with teptelimab, lirotinib, fuzerex, taretinib adipate, selpercatinib, and pitobrutinib, were included in the 2025 NRDL, effective from 2026. Combined with the anticipated further volume growth of mazdutide, the firm believes synergistic effects among the product portfolio are likely to become more evident in 2026, indicating continued strong commercial momentum.
The focus for 2026 will be on the continued validation of innovative molecules like IBI363 and internationalization progress. In October 2025, the company announced a multi-billion dollar collaboration with Takeda for pipelines including IBI363. The global development progress of IBI363 in 2026 is highly anticipated, with potential catalysts including the readout of first-line proof-of-concept data, patient enrollment pace for the global registrational trial in later-line lung squamous cell carcinoma, and the initiation of the colorectal cancer registrational trial. Furthermore, the company announced the completion of the collaboration and share transfer with Takeda in December; the upfront payment is expected to significantly boost 2026 profits.
Risk warnings include R&D failures, commercialization performance falling short of expectations, and delays in external collaboration progress.