Review & Preview: Optimism Sets In -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones
Oct 16

By Megan Leonhardt

A Global All-Hands. The latest trade brinkmanship with China is casting shadows over Washington, D.C. as world leaders dash between International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings. But 250 miles north, on Wall Street, traders had other things on their minds, namely corporate earnings.

A barrage of solid bank earnings drove stock moves Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.7%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 17 points.

Bank of America's profit soared 23% last quarter, while a buoyant stock market and a surge in dealmaking helped lift Morgan Stanley's earnings above expectations. Eight of the 10 companies reporting this morning beat Wall Street's profit estimates, according to Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.

At the same time, the latest economic measure delivered mixed signals about the health of U.S. activity over the past eight weeks. In the absence of official economic indicators from U.S. statistical agencies, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book -- which relies on anecdotal evidence from businesses within the 12 federal reserve districts -- was a much-watched report. It noted that prices rose and consumer spending has "inched down" in recent weeks.

Otherwise, the Beige Book seemed to largely fall in line with the view of the economy that Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlined on Tuesday -- i.e. not much has changed from September.

The Hot Stock: Bunge Global +13.0% The Biggest Loser: Axon Enterprise -8.5%

Best Sector: Real Estate +1.5% Worst Sector: Materials -0.5%

Keeping De-escalation Hopes Alive

U.S. officials are still hopeful they can put an end to the standoff over Chinese exports of rare earths without an all-out trade war.

On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent condemned China's recent decision to step up curbs on its exports of rare-earth metals, calling the actions part of a broader plan by Beijing to control the world's supply chains.

Though Bessent described China's actions as a "highly provocative move" he said that as of Tuesday night, President Donald Trump still planned to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of the month. Greer also noted that China's export controls haven't been implemented, nor has the U.S. moved forward with its tariff threats, leaving room for a de-escalation.

China announced new rules last week that would require companies to essentially obtain licenses before exporting products containing any trace of rare earths from the country. The news blindsided U.S. officials who agreed to a deal in May with China to pause the implementation of aggressive tariffs.

"I believe China is open to discussion, and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated ultimately," Bessent said. "We've had substantial communication with the Chinese over the past few days, and we believe that there will be more forthcoming this week."

Investors are betting on that off-ramp, with markets moving higher after the officials spoke with reporters on Wednesday.

"I think de-escalation is still the path. It does not seem like the U.S. has a clear strategy of escalation and the market is certainly a constraint," Rory Green, head of China research for TS Lombard, wrote in an email.

The Calendar

Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, CSX, Interactive Brokers Group, KeyCorp, Marsh & McClennan, M&T Bank, Snap-On, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Travelers, and U.S. Bancorp report earnings tomorrow.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for October. The consensus call is for a 33 reading, one point more than in September. Readings below 50 indicate that home builders have a dour outlook in the near term for the single-family housing market.

What We're Reading Today

   -- Breaking Up With Big Tech Is Hard to Do. How to Truly Diversify. 
 
   -- CoreWeave to Work With Nvidia-Backed Start-Up on Texas AI Data Center 
      Project 
 
   -- United Airlines Stock Has Overcome Turbulence. Why Earnings Can Get It 
      Flying Again. 
 
   -- The Fed Can't Solve All Our Problems, Says Ex-Philly Fed President 
 
   -- New Zealand Beckons as Europe Plays Harder to Get With 'Golden Visas' 

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Write to Megan Leonhardt at megan.leonhardt@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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October 15, 2025 18:05 ET (22:05 GMT)

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