By Doug Busch

As recession talks continue, it's worth keeping an eye on consumer data for some perspective.

The last GDP reading came in better than expected. With consumption accounting for roughly two-thirds of GDP, the report suggests that U.S. consumers are still confident. So does the last retail sales report, which also rose more than anticipated.

This strength is showing up in the Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR ETF, which has rallied 25% from its April lows. This makes it the third-best performing S&P 500 sector over the past six months, trailing only technology.

That performance does lean heavily the likes of Tesla and Amazon, with the former still up a scorching 72% year to date even after last week's 8% pullback. To get a more balanced read on the sector's internals, it's more instructive to examine the SPDR S&P Retail ETF, a more equally weighted basket. Technically, it is forming a bull flag, with a breakout above $88 possibly triggering a swift move toward $96.

Recent price action has been constructive, following a cup-with-handle breakout on July 1, and a bullish island reversal confirmed on Aug. 4 with a small gap higher. With that backdrop, let's dig into three retail stocks that look technically positioned to rally into year end.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF traded at $86.27 Monday.

eBay is quietly having a banner year in 2025, up nearly 50%. That strength is all the more notable given the sharp 15% pullback since mid-August, after the stock briefly flirted with the very round $100 number. Since then, price action has stabilized with the last three weekly closes landing within just $1.06 of each other, signaling tight consolidation near all-time highs. On Friday, eBay completed a bullish morning star reversal, gaining over 4%. This notably outperformed the SPDR S&P Retail ETF, which finished roughly unchanged. Traders could initiate here and add above the double bottom trigger at $94.48. As long as it holds above $87, the path remains higher. Look for a move toward $120 by the second quarter.

eBay was trading at $92.02 Monday.

Ford Motor, long dismissed as "dead money," is showing meaningful signs of life. The stock is up 28% year to date and received an upgrade from Jefferies Monday. It is notably outpacing main rival General Motors, which has gained 12% over the same period. Investors are also being paid to wait, with Ford's nearly 5% dividend yield. International peers are performing too. Ferrari and Stellantis rallied 5% and 16% last week, respectively, further highlighting global strength across the auto industry.

Ford last week broke above a weekly bull flag pivot at $12, triggering a measured move target toward $14. The bullish tone was first set in early April with back-to-back long-legged doji and spinning top candles, signaling a possible inflection point. The next upside target lies near $15, which corresponds to the area of two prior bearish evening star patterns from April and July 2024. The stock could see a move toward those prior resistance zones by early 2026.

Ford was trading at $12.64 Monday.

Jumia Technologies, often referred to as the " Amazon of Africa," has surged more than 200% this year, and a staggering 600% off its April lows. The stock has risen in 21 of the last 26 weeks. The week ending Aug. 8 marked an inflection point as Jumia rallied 30% to clear a well-defined inverse head and shoulders pattern. Since then, the stock has formed a bull flag formation, consolidating gains in orderly fashion, a healthy sign after such a parabolic move. Round-number resistance came into play on Sept. 16, when the stock vaulted above $10, shedding its single-digit stigma and confirming renewed institutional interest. Traders should enter on strength above $12.25, with a potential measured move target to $18 by the second quarter. As long as it holds above $10.50, the bullish thesis remains intact.

Jumia Technologies was trading at $12.40 Monday.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com

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October 06, 2025 11:27 ET (15:27 GMT)

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