Al Root
Boeing stock has responded well to management's turnaround efforts. The company appears to be on track, with a possible boost to 737 MAX production coming soon.
The stock might be due for a pause, though. Historically, September has been the cruelest month for Boeing investors.
On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Michael O'Leary, CEO of a key 737 customer, Ryanair, said Boeing planned to increase 737 MAX production to 42 a month by October from 38 monthly.
Boeing referred Barron's to prior management comments when asked about production increases. In July, the company said it expected to increase MAX production in the "coming months."
The Federal Aviation Administration capped MAX production at 38 a month shortly after an emergency door plug blew out of a 737 MAX 9 jet while in flight in January 2024. Boeing slowed its MAX production to fewer than 38 jets a month, focusing on improving quality and its supply chain, and only recently reached that level.
Higher production is good news for Boeing investors. It means more earnings and free cash flow. Boeing delivered 806 planes in 2018, earning $9.4 billion in net income and generating $13.6 billion in free cash flow. It delivered 348 jets in 2024, losing $12 billion and using $14.3 billion in cash.
Wall Street sees jet deliveries of 575 in 2025 and 715 in 2026, according to Bloomberg. Earnings and free cash flow aren't expected in 2025, but should return in 2026. Analysts project 2026 net income of $2.8 billion and free cash flow of $5.1 billion.
Higher production is a big reason Boeing's stock, entering Wednesday trading, was up 33% year to date. However, shares have struggled to break above the 52-week high of $242.69 reached in July.
"Right now, the most important support area is between $223 to $226, which is the August low," says CappThesis founder and market technician Frank Cappelleri. "Key resistance is $235. And if the stock can break above that zone, it would trigger a bullish pattern breakout with an upside target up at $254."
Support and resistance are terms used by traders and technical stock market analysts. Support is a level investors have bought shares after a dip, keeping the stock from falling further. Resistance is a level where investors have taken profits, preventing shares from adding to gains.
Fairlead Strategies analyst Will Tamplin sees resistance slightly higher, around $340 per share. He isn't sure a breakout is coming soon, adding the stock "shows a loss of upside momentum that makes it look susceptible to a seasonal pullback in September."
Tamplin's seasonality observation is interesting. Over the past 30 years, September has been one of the weakest months for Boeing stock, with shares falling about 1% on average. And over the past three years, Boeing's September has been dreadful, down 12%, 14%, and 24%, in 2024, 2023, and 2022, respectively.
There is no good fundamental reason, Barron's can think of, for that to be the case, but it is the pattern. September is the month before Boeing typically reports third-quarter earnings. Earnings are often a catalyst to get stocks moving up or down.
Boeing investors might have to wait for the third-quarter earnings report for shares to recapture this year's momentum. That should also be when Boeing updates investors about its production progress.
Cappelleri and Tamplin aren't making fundamental calls on Boeing stock. Technical analysts use stock charts and market history to gauge investor sentiment. Technical analysis is a useful tool for investors looking to understand what the overall market thinks about a stock.
Boeing stock was down 0.7% at $233.22 in midday trading, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2025 14:23 ET (18:23 GMT)
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