A tough week ended on an upswing, as Fed Chief Jerome Powell at least cracked the door to a rate easing cycle beginning in September. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fought back from tests of support to put the stock market on more positive footing.
The future of the artificial intelligence rally was a stumbling block over the past week, but Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report on Wednesday could help either allay or aggravate concerns. Markets could be sensitive to the week's inflation and jobs data, and reports from a slew of retail and financial leaders — including Canada's Big Five banks — could generate come interesting stock moves.
With AI-related stocks and other high-octane issues taking a breather, defensive growth and other names have come to the fore. Boston Scientific (BSX), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Uber Technologies (UBER), RTX (RTX) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are all holding strong or moving higher in recent days. Boston Scientific and Booking have already flashed aggressive entries, retaking support at their converged 21-day and 50-day moving averages this past week. Uber is close to a traditional cup-base buy point. Boston Scientific has been bumping up against resistance since March. RTX and JPMorgan have been trading tightly for weeks, finding key support above prior bases.
The Federal Reserve's primary inflation rate, the core PCE price index, headlines the coming week's economic calendar. Out Friday, along with Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income and outlays data, economists expect the 12-month core inflation rate to rise to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June. Incoming data is unlikely to derail a Sept. 17 Fed rate cut, but hot inflation could depress rate-hike expectations beyond September. Initial jobless claims will be in focus after claims rose to an eight-week high of 235,000 in the week through Aug. 16. The latest data showed continuing claims by those unable to find jobs hit their highest level since November 2021.
AI chip leader Nvidia will report its fiscal second-quarter results late Wednesday. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1 a share, up 47% year over year, on sales of $45.87 billion, up 53%. Wall Street will focus on the resumption of AI chip sales to China and the outlook for cloud capex spending amid concerns that companies aren't seeing a return on investment for artificial intelligence applications. Investors will also look for details on the new H2O chip for China and on the revenue-sharing deal notched with the Trump administration. Nvidia stock fell over the past two weeks on worries of an AI stock bubble. But shares recovered to above their 21-day moving average on Friday.
As back-to-school season winds down, apparel makers and retailers check in during the coming week. PVH (PVH), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Guess (GES) all report. Urban Outfitters has the best analyst estimates and stock chart in the group. Guess jumped 26% Wednesday on plans to go private in a $1.4 billion deal with Authentic Brands.
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Dollar stores Five Below (FIVE), Dollar General (DG) and Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) all report on Wednesday, possibly providing some sense of just how much U.S. consumers are or are not stressed. Ollie's is up 21% so far this year and trading tight as it tests support. Q2 earnings are expected to jump 18% and remain solid through the year. Five Below has a year-to-date gain of 35% and is in a three-weeks tight pattern. Dollar General has climbed 47%. Five Below's earnings are seen slowing in Q2, then falling through the year. Analysts see Dollar General slipping in Q2 through Q1 of 2026.
Consumer financing leader Affirm Holdings (AFRM) reports fiscal Q4 earnings late Thursday. Guidance for fiscal 2026 will be key. In fiscal Q4, analysts project a 206% GAAP earnings gain, with revenue growing 27%. Gross merchandise volume is expected to come in at $9.6 billion. Results could get a boost from a new partnership with Shopify (SHOP). Its Walmart (WMT) partnership seems to be waning. Analysts view Affirm as a share taker in "buy now, pay later" installment payment services.
Affirm Keeps Taking Share In Booming 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Market. Earnings Are Due Next Week.
The Big Five Canadian banks report in the coming week, and all enter the week with healthy charts. The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is queued up in a tight consolidation ahead of its report on Tuesday. Analysts see an upturn in earnings. Also on Tuesday, analysts expect similar results for Scotiabank (BNS). The Royal Bank of Canada (RY) is notching new highs after a June breakout. On Thursday, Toronto Dominion (TD) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) deliver results. Expectations are low, but both stocks are poised in tight consolidations atop big run ups.
Heico (HEI) reports Q3 results late Monday. FactSet expects the defense and aerospace contractor to report a 16% increase in earnings on 12.5% revenue growth. HEI stock has fallen back below its 50-day line from an early August high. Shares are up more than 29% so far this year.
NetApp (NTAP) reports fiscal first-quarter results late Wednesday. Analysts expect the enterprise data storage firm to report a 1% drop in earnings on flat sales. NetApp rival Pure Storage (PSTG) will also publish results Wednesday. Both stocks have regained technical support after a Q1 dive.
Veeva Systems (VEEV) will report its fiscal 2026 Q2 results late Wednesday. FactSet consensus sees the health care software-maker reporting a 17% jump in adjusted earnings and sales gain of nearly 14%. Up 34% year to date, share have traded sideways since June.
Greif (GEF), a maker of packaging materials, reports its fiscal Q3 results on Thursday. Analysts project a 35% EPS gain, amid the company's efforts to sell off assets, including the $462 million sale of its timberland management unit announced this month. Shares are either in a flat base or a handle, perched on 50-day support.
Harmony Gold (HMY) reports its fiscal 2025 results on Thursday. Australian regulators approved the South African miner's $1 billion acquisition of MAC Copper, with a shareholders vote due on Friday. Harmony is in a base and back above support, but current sideways trade is too low to be a valid handle.
Dell Technologies (DELL) delivers fiscal Q2 results after the stock market closes on Thursday. Analysts model earnings of $2.29 a share, up 21% year over year, on sales of $29.02 billion, up 16%. The computer maker has gotten a lift lately from robust data center server sales. Shares are rebounding from 10-week support and up 14% so far this year.
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