By Jasmine Li

President Trump's successful push for Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map is igniting what could grow into a nationwide redistricting war, as the GOP and Democrats look to squeeze out extra House seats ahead of the closely fought midterm elections. California is moving to retaliate with its own gerrymander -- and Missouri is also considering entering the fray.

Here's what to know about the unusual mid-decade redistricting pushes.

What's the state of play?

The Texas state legislature passed its redrawn congressional map, putting Republicans in a position to flip as many as five House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. Fighting back, California Gov. Gavin Newsom called for a Nov. 4 special election to put a new map before voters that could help Democrats gain up to five seats as well. Several other states are also weighing redrawing their maps.

Which other states could redistrict?

Overall, state rules and legislatures' party splits would give the GOP an edge in an all-out redistricting fight, which could ultimately span a dozen or more states. Republicans have one-party control or veto-proof majorities in more states and fewer guardrails around redrawing maps. More Democratic-led states have entrusted redistricting to independent commissions. Courts could also play a role.

More than a dozen red states and three blue states meet the conditions to potentially redistrict for 2026 without the need for a special election or amending the state Constitution.

GOP-led Ohio is legally required to redraw its congressional districts this year. Missouri, Indiana and Florida have indicated interest in redistricting as well. The only states where Democrats have one-party control and the power to immediately pass a new map through the state legislature are Oregon, Illinois and Maryland. New York wants to redraw its map, but that wouldn't happen until the 2028 election at the earliest.

How many seats could be flipped through redistricting?

While both Texas and California are seeking to flip five seats, other states have fewer seats to target. Shawn Donahue, a political-science professor at the University at Buffalo, predicts Republicans would pick up four to six of House seats nationwide if a tit-for-tat redistricting fight were to break out. They currently have a 219-212 majority.

"If it's a real dogfight for control of the House in 2026, that could make the difference," he said.

There are two major constraints when it comes to the maps themselves, according to Jay Dow, professor of political science at the University of Missouri. All districts have to maintain an equal population, and while partisan gerrymanders are legal, the maps cannot be racially discriminatory.

What is Trump's strategy?

Trump urged Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to call for an immediate redrawing of the map, rather than wait until after the next Census in 2030. Losing the House would make Trump's final two years in office more difficult, bringing his policy agenda to a halt and likely exposing him to investigations by Democrats. Other Republicans have called it an effort to counter Democratic gerrymandering.

Midterm elections have historically favored the minority party, and Democrats would need a net gain of only a handful of seats to take back the House majority. A July poll by The Wall Street Journal found that more voters said they would back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%, if the election were held today, though Democrats have typically needed a bigger polling cushion to win the majority.

What's the bigger picture?

Mid-decade redistricting without a court order has been rare but not unprecedented. Chris Warshaw, a professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University, said the new precedents could follow into future cycles.

"It's not clear where this ends," he said. "If Texas can do this this cycle and that sets off a chain reaction, why would we think there won't be a whole another set of states that try to do this in 2027 and likewise in 2029?"

States are set to redraw their maps all over again following the 2030 Census.

"The chessboard will be reset after that," Dow said.

Why is this so controversial?

Both parties in many states have historically gerrymandered maps to their advantage while they were in power. That has created a series of unusually shaped districts and assertions of voter suppression from both parties. The nonpartisan Gerrymandering Project at Princeton University gave 15 states a "D" or "F" grade for fairness.

The Supreme Court ruled in recent years that partisan gerrymanders are permitted under federal law, while racially discriminatory ones aren't, giving more room for explicitly one-sided maps.

This explanatory article may be updated periodically.

Write to Jasmine Li at jasmine.li@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 24, 2025 08:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

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