Explore Birkenstock Holding's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

It's been a good week for Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE:BIRK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.8% to US$49.80. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €635m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Birkenstock Holding surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.69 per share, a notable 15% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Birkenstock Holding's 20 analysts is for revenues of €2.39b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 27% to €2.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €2.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.11 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Birkenstock Holding

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$70.70. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Birkenstock Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$81.35 and the most bearish at US$57.25 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Birkenstock Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Birkenstock Holding is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$70.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Birkenstock Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Birkenstock Holding's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.