Markets are once again defying gravity, plowing to new highs despite an array of otherwise rally-snuffing data and economic circumstances. The coming week holds a number of important events, led by the annual economic summit held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With hopes for a September interest rate cut propping up portions of the market, Fed Chief Jerome Powell's speech on Friday will be of central interest to the stock market.
Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) set in motion the retail portion of the earnings season, reporting Tuesday and Thursday. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) checks in, with investors hungry for details on its CyberArk purchase. An array of other interesting names, like Fabrinet (FN) in the fast-moving electronic contract manufacturers group, also report.
While it's hard to see on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the key indexes and equal-weight ETFs have forged handle-like formations in the past couple of weeks. The Russell 2000 recently cleared that area. Likewise, a number of stocks from a variety of sectors — including some of the largest names on the market — are setting up. Netflix (NFLX) and Spotify (SPOT) are among those eyeing early entries in new bases. Amazon (AMZN) is already actionable as it powers toward record highs. Micron Technology (MU) is near a buy point and might be working on a handle. Blackstone (BX) has a classic cup-with-handle base, and recovered nicely to above technical support before shaping its handle.
How To Buy Stocks
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday at 10 a.m. ET highlights the economic calendar for the week. Markets see overwhelming odds of a rate cut at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting, and Powell might remove any suspense. Last year at Jackson Hole, he telegraphed the start of Fed rate cuts. This time he might confirm their resumption. Still, it's far from clear how dovish Powell will be. As of July 30, Powell still characterized the labor market as solid. The July jobs report two days later, which included sharp downward revisions to May and June data, showed that Powell was wrong. Markets will be looking for signals as to how much easing he thinks the labor market needs and how restrictive Powell thinks rates are currently.
Initial jobless claims, out Thursday at 8:30 a.m., will be in focus for any incremental sign of softness. Further increases in continuing claims from those who have yet to find jobs could signal rising unemployment.
Retail Sales Get Amazon Lift; Inflation Expectations Jump
Retailers Target (TGT) and Walmart launch the retail portion of the Q2 earnings season this week, just ahead of the back-to-school shopping season. Walmart may see a rebound in traffic, as overall and same-store visits rose about 1% during the quarter, according to Placer.ai, reversing Q1's 2.5% decline. Oppenheimer sees potential for stronger revenue momentum than was expected earlier in the year. The firm expects WMT could lift its 2025 targets. Truist expects a solid quarter, though comparisons are about to become difficult for retailers. Placer.ai data indicates that visits to Target were down 3.1% during Q2. Walmart has been wrestling with a breakout from a flat base.
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Home Depot and Lowe's (LOW) turn in quarterly reports Tuesday and Wednesday. Mortgage rates have crept lower, driving up refinancing activity — the lifeblood of home improvement demand. Home Depot has climbed almost 9% in August. For Lowe's, the month has so far been its best since March 2021. Analysts target low single-digit improvements for both companies, a step up from the past two years. Truist on Wednesday boosted Home Depot's price target to 433, 9% above where shares traded Friday.
How To Read Stock Charts
In the shade of reports from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's, a collection of other leading retailers are also set to report. TJX (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), Buckle (BKE) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) are all due. Among those, TJX and Buckle are expected to see modest EPS and revenue gains. TJX is basing, just below a buy point. Buckle, up almost 70% from an April low, has pushed above long-term resistance this past week. Dillard's is tinkering with new highs, up 14% from an early July breakout.
Contract manufacturers have had a strong run since April, with Jabil (JBL) up 99%, Celestica (CLS) ahead 232% and Flex (FLEX) showing a 92% gain. The industry group's fourth-largest player, Fabrinet, reports its fiscal Q4 Monday. Forecasts call for a 9% EPS gains and a 17% jump in revenue. Shares are up 122% from an April low, with a 50% gain so far this year.
Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal Q4 earnings Monday. Its controversial $25 billion acquisition of CyberArk broke the stock's three-month rally in July. Analysts project adjusted earnings of 89 cents per share, up 17%. Revenue is seen climbing 14% to $2.501 billion. Annual recurring revenue from subscription-based cloud products is estimated at $5.55 billion. Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, target $16.46 billion. Aside from the CyberArk purchase, analysts will be interested in platformization and the firewall refresh cycle. Deutsche Bank upgraded PANW to buy on Wednesday, with a 220 price target — 25% above its trading level Friday. A week earlier, rival Fortinet (FTNT) sold off on its firewall business outlook.
Baidu (BIDU) will report Q2 earnings early Wednesday. Analysts are looking for the China search engine provider to post a 37% decrease in earnings to $1.84 per American depositary share. Sales are projected to also decline, about 3% to $4.57 billion. Baidu derives much of its revenue from advertising and has seen a pullback in spending with the wobbly Chinese economy. It is also investing heavily to be an AI leader in the country and offer self-driving cars. U.S.-listed Baidu stock is up 5% year to date, lagging the 44% gain by Alibaba Group (BABA), China's largest tech firm. Alibaba is yet to announce its June quarter earnings date. Analysts expect results to be published before the end of the month.
Toll Brothers (TOL) on Wednesday reports its Q3 results. Expectations for the quarter are low, but the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle brought a number of homebuilder stocks back to life. Management's outlook will be critical. TOL shares have been rebounding off an April low, and the four month rally has left shares with a year-to-date gain of 4%.
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) reports second-quarter results early Wednesday. Analysts project Q2 EPS falling 43% with sales down just over 9%. The Greece-based fleet operates dry cargo and tanker vessels. Investors will look for commentary on how the Trump White House tariff policies may affect trade in the second half of the year. Navios stock is in a buy zone.
Estee Lauder (EL) and cosmetics and fragrance peer Coty (COTY) report results Wednesday. Estee Lauder has rebounded 85% off an April low and has notched tight weekly closes ahead of its report. Analysts call for declines, but see earnings turning sharply higher over the next few quarters.
Dycom Industries (DY) reports early Wednesday, with views for fiscal 2026 Q2 earnings growing 19% to $2.92 per share. Analysts see revenue totaling $1.41 billion, up 17.5% compared to a year ago, according to FactSet. DY stock has rallied more than 40% since the telecoms and utilities contracting services provider in late May increased its fiscal 2026 contract revenue expectations to $5.29 billion-$5.425 billion, representing a range of 12.5%-15.4% growth compared to the previous year.
Futu Holdings (FUTU) has scrambled 47% higher following a breakout in June, and is trading near an alternate buy point. The China-based online trading platform has racked up solid recent earnings and revenue growth, with both lines expected to pop more than 50% when the company reports on Wednesday.
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