Explore NeuroPace's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

Investors in NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.8% to close at US$9.32 following the release of its quarterly results. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$24m were in line with expectations,NeuroPace lost US$0.26 a share in the process. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NeuroPace's eight analysts is for revenues of US$95.5m in 2025. This would reflect a modest 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.85 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$94.8m and losses of US$0.82 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for NeuroPace

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$17.25, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic NeuroPace analyst has a price target of US$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NeuroPace's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while NeuroPace's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NeuroPace going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for NeuroPace you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.