Which cryptocurrency exchanges are going public on the US stock market and what are their respective valuations?

Blockbeats
7 hours ago
Original Article Title: Taking Stock of Crypto Exchanges Pursuing an IPO
Original Article Authors: Tanay Ved, Victor Ramirez, Coin Metrics
Original Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Key Points:

· With a favorable regulatory environment and investor interest in public market exposure to crypto assets, Kraken, Gemini, and Bullish are planning to go public through an Initial Public Offering (IPO).

· In 2021, Coinbase set an industry benchmark with its IPO. Coinbase went public with a valuation of $65 billion, with 96% of its revenue at the time coming from trading fees, whereas today subscription and services revenue accounts for 44% in Q2 2025.

· Among IPO candidate exchanges, Coinbase still leads with 49% market share in spot trading volume. Bullish and Kraken follow with 22% each and are rapidly expanding into new services.

· Not all reported trading volumes are created equal. Wash trading analysis has uncovered inflated activities on certain platforms, emphasizing the need to assess the quality and transparency of trading platforms.

Introduction

Throughout cryptocurrency industry history, the U.S. government has been mostly indifferent, if not hostile. However, there was a positive change in sentiment last week.

The President's Working Group on Financial Markets released a 166-page report outlining the state of digital assets and proposing policy recommendations to establish a comprehensive market structure. Simultaneously, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced the "Crypto Across America" initiative in a public speech, aiming to make the U.S. the "global capital of crypto" through initiatives like bringing financial markets on-chain, simplifying the cumbersome licensing regime for crypto businesses, and supporting the creation of financial "super apps" offering multiple services.

The primary beneficiaries of this new regulatory regime are centralized exchanges. Several private centralized exchanges like Kraken, Bullish, and Gemini are taking advantage of this relatively favorable environment to pursue an Initial Public Offering (IPO). As these companies open up for public investment, it is essential for investors to understand their fundamental drivers. In this article, we will delve into the key metrics of these exchanges and highlight some considerations when using exchange-reported data.

Cryptocurrency Exchange IPO Craze

Since Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, there have been few IPOs related to the crypto industry in the past four years. The main reason is the adversarial relationship between cryptocurrency companies and the former SEC. As a result, private companies could not obtain liquidity from the public markets, and non-accredited investors could not profit from investing in these companies. With the Trump administration promising a more crypto-friendly regulatory regime, a new batch of private cryptocurrency companies has announced plans to go public.

This environment, combined with investor interest in public market crypto exposure, has generated some of the most explosive IPOs, such as Circle's recent public IPO. Gemini, Bullish, and Kraken plan to list in the United States, hoping to seize this opportunity and position themselves as full-stack digital asset service providers.

Coinbase's 2021 IPO

Coinbase's 2021 IPO provided a useful benchmark for assessing the investment prospects of potential cryptocurrency exchange IPOs. The company went public on April 14, 2021, through a direct listing on the Nasdaq, with a reference price of $250 per share, a fully-diluted valuation of $65 billion, and an opening price of $381. Coinbase's listing coincided with the peak of the 2021 bull market, with Bitcoin trading near $64,000 and the exchange's trading volume exceeding $100 billion.

According to its S-1 filing, Coinbase's business model at the time was straightforward, with the majority of its revenue coming from transaction fees:

“From inception to December 31, 2020, we generated over $3.4 billion in total revenue, primarily from retail users and institutions based on trading volume on our platform. As of December 31, 2020, transaction revenue accounted for over 96% of our net revenue. We leveraged the advantage of our transaction business to expand and extend the platform, launch new products and services through the investment flywheel, and grow the ecosystem.”

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Professional and Google Finance

Today, Coinbase looks more like a “full-stack trading platform.” While trading remains its core business, its business model has significantly expanded into the full-stack domain of cryptocurrency services. This change is beginning to be reflected in the relationship between COIN price and trading volume. In the early stages, the two were closely related, but as the importance of "subscription and service revenue" (including stablecoin revenue (USDC interest income), blockchain rewards (staking), custody income, etc.) has increased, this correlation has weakened:

Coinbase Q1 2021:

· Revenue $16 billion

· Trading Revenue $15.5 billion (96%)

· Subscription and Services Revenue $560 million (4%)

Coinbase Q2 2025:

· Revenue $15 billion

· Trading Revenue $7.64 billion (51%)

· Subscription and Services Revenue $6.56 billion (44%)

· Enterprise Interest Revenue $77 million (5%)

Upcoming IPO Exchange Platform Comparative Analysis

Based on this framework, we have listed estimated data on the valuation, trading volume, and business areas of upcoming IPO exchange platforms.

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Professional Edition and public filings (data as of August 1, 2025)

While these exchange platforms offer similar services, they exhibit significant differences in market impact and trading activity scale.

Founded in 2013, Kraken has reached a more mature stage. The company has shown strong financial growth, with revenue of $15 billion in 2024 (up 128% from 2023) and Q2 2025 revenue of $4.12 billion. Kraken has also expanded strategically through acquisitions like NinjaTrader, obtained the European MiCA license, and ventured into areas such as tokenized stocks, payments, and on-chain infrastructure (Ink). The target valuation is around $150 billion, with 2024 revenue of $15 billion, giving it a revenue multiple of 10x, slightly lower than Coinbase's 12.7x.

In contrast, Gemini is smaller in scale. Its average trading volume over the past year is $164 million, the lowest among these exchange platforms. Gemini's most recent valuation dates back to its Series A funding in 2021 at $7.1 billion, with private markets valuing it at $8 billion. Apart from spot and derivatives business, Gemini also offers staking and credit card products, provides interest on user deposits, and is the issuer of the Gemini Dollar (GUSD), but its circulating supply has decreased to $54 million.

Bullish ranks top in trading activity, with an average trading volume of $19.5 billion over the past year. Bullish Exchange is at the core of its trading and liquidity infrastructure, focusing on institutional clients and regulated in Germany, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar, while actively seeking U.S. licensing. Additionally, Bullish has expanded into the information services sector through the acquisition of CoinDesk. According to the F-1 filing, the company had a net profit of $80 million and a net loss of $349 million in 2024. Based on a canceled SPAC deal in 2022, its initial valuation was close to $9 billion, and it is currently reported to be seeking a $42 billion valuation.

Trading Platform Trading Volume Trends

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Professional Edition

Overall, Coinbase and other exchanges preparing for an IPO represent only about 11.6% of the reported spot trading volume of centralized trading platforms. Binance alone holds 39%, while other offshore exchanges also have a significant share. Among the monitored trading platforms, Coinbase accounts for 49% of spot trading volume, with Bullish and Kraken each holding 22%. Since its launch in 2022, Bullish's share has steadily grown, while Kraken has seen a slight decline in market share due to increased competition.

Trading on the Order Book: Analyzing Trading Platform Economic Activity

As mentioned above, trading volume is one of the most predictive indicators for estimating valuation. However, reported trading volumes may vary by exchange, becoming a potentially misleading data point.

While most major cryptocurrency exchanges have cracked down on wash trading, some non-compliant activities still exist. Our Trusted Exchange Framework approach provides a detailed insight into how to detect abnormal trading activities and assess qualitative factors such as regulatory compliance.

Source: Trusted Exchange Framework

A more robust signal we've developed to detect wash trading is to calculate the frequency of repetitive trades. Our testing methodology is as follows:

· We randomly sampled 144 5-minute intervals from January to June 2025, resulting in nearly 20 million transactions.

· For each exchange and time period, select one transaction.

· If another transaction occurs within 10 transactions or 5 seconds with the opposite direction, almost the same amount and price (<1%), mark these two transactions as duplicate trades.

· Repeat this process for each transaction. Skip transactions that have already been marked as duplicates.

· Calculate the trading volume of the identified duplicate trades and divide by the total volume.

In the diagram below, we illustrate a sample of trades on a few exchanges within one time period and highlight potential wash trades. Each gray dot represents a regular trade, while green and red markers represent wash trades.

Source: Trustworthy Exchange Framework

Due to the approximate nature of this method, we expect some false positives, i.e., duplicate trades caused by normal market activity (e.g., market makers facilitating trades by providing liquidity on both sides of the order book). However, compared to industry baselines like Crypto.com and Poloniex, the proportion of wash trades is higher, raising concerns about the reliability of reported trading volume data.

For example, in the first to second quarter of 2025, we estimate that Crypto.com's BTC-USD ($201 billion), BTC-USDT ($192 billion), ETH-USD ($165 billion), and ETH-USDT ($160 billion) trading volumes totaled around $720 billion. Based on the estimated ratio mentioned above, approximately $160 billion of the volume in these trading pairs is from wash trades.

Conclusion

As multiple cryptocurrency exchanges are set to go public, investors need to understand the relative trading volumes of these platforms. While trading volume helps estimate trading revenue (still the major source of revenue), qualitative factors such as business diversification, the existence of wash trades, and regulatory compliance are also crucial considerations for evaluating exchange quality. This information can assist market participants in assessing whether the valuation is reasonable.

Four years after its IPO, Coinbase continues to maintain its leading position, largely due to revenue diversification in areas such as custody, stablecoins, and Layer-2 fees. However, competition in the exchange market is intensifying. To compete, other exchanges need to diversify their revenue streams away from trading-related fees highly dependent on market sentiment. As market structures become clearer, exchanges are allowed to evolve from trading venues into comprehensive super apps. How these exchanges seize this opportunity, whether they can realize their vision, and replicate the success of past groundbreaking IPOs will be crucial developments to watch in the coming year.

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