Explore ON Semiconductor's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

There's been a notable change in appetite for ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:ON) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 19% to US$47.24. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$1.5b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 14% to hit US$0.41 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 34 analysts covering ON Semiconductor, is for revenues of US$5.96b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 6.8% reduction in ON Semiconductor's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 67% to US$0.37 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.44 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for ON Semiconductor

The consensus price target held steady at US$57.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ON Semiconductor at US$70.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ON Semiconductor shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 13% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that ON Semiconductor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ON Semiconductor. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$57.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ON Semiconductor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for ON Semiconductor that you should be aware of.

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