It is doubtless a positive to see that the Harbin Bank Co., Ltd. (HKG:6138) share price has gained some 48% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. Indeed, the share price is down 64% in the period. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. However, in the best case scenario (far from fait accompli), this improved performance might be sustained.
With the stock having lost 8.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Harbin Bank's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 22% each year. Notably, the share price has fallen at 19% per year, fairly close to the change in the EPS. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Harbin Bank's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
We're pleased to report that Harbin Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 54% over one year. That certainly beats the loss of about 10% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Harbin Bank that you should be aware of.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
Discover if Harbin Bank might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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