Updates with closer price
July 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday as hot weather forecasts in August are expected to boost air-conditioning demand, prompting more gas use by power generators, while technical buying ahead of the August contract expiration added further support.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.07 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $3.081 per million British thermal units at 03:05 p.m. EDT. The contract hit its lowest level since late April in the previous session. The August contract expires on Tuesday.
"We are seeing some profit-taking by short sellers this morning after several sessions of downward pressure pushed the market into an oversold stance. There is also some support for cash prices as August ends its run at the top of the board from immediate-term weather which has power sector demands elevated," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
"Some heat starting to creep onto the 11-15 day outlooks could give the bulls a reason to come out of hiding, but it needs to intensify before it is worthy of a true rally in prices."
Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping from 106 bcfd last week to 112 bcfd this week. It also estimated 239 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, up from 232 estimated on Monday. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius).
"A hot summer is likely for North America. Warmth during June-August could be widespread in nature except over the Northeast U.S., with the most intense heat risks focused on the central U.S.," said Isaac Hankes, research specialist at LSEG Data and Analytics.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.
Meanwhile, oil and gas equipment supplier Baker Hughes BKR.O said on Tuesday it would acquire Chart Industries GTLS.N in a $13.6 billion all-cash deal, including debt, edging out rival suitor Flowserve FLS.N.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range, on strong supply and remarks from U.S. President Trump suggesting a shortened deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. NG/EU
Week ended Jul 25 Forecast | Week ended Jul 18 Actual | Year ago Jul 25 | Five-year average Jul 25 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +42 | +23 | +18 | +24 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,117 | 3,075 | 3,246 | 2,928 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.5% | +5.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.06 | 3.10 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.91 | 11.11 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | - | 11.93 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 239 | 232 | 205 | 181 | 173 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 241 | 234 | 210 | 183 | 176 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108 | 108 | 108 | 97.8 | |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.1 | 8 | 8 | 7.8 | |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.1 | 116 | 116 | 105.7 | |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2.3 | |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 7 | 7 | 6.4 | |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 15.2 | 15 | 16 | 10.0 | |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4 | 4 | 4.7 | |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | |
U.S. Power Plant | 43.9 | 50 | 46 | 48.1 | |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22 | 22 | 21.7 | |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.8 | 89 | 83 | 86.9 | |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.9 | 112 | 108 | 99.2 | |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 1 | Week ended Jul 25 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
43 | 41 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.11 | 3.10 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.89 | 2.80 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.24 | 3.16 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.56 | 2.49 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.95 | 2.83 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 6.25 | 3.34 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.44 | 3.29 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.26 | 1.11 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.22 | 0.40 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 171.03 | 171.03 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 203.11 | 144.01 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 74.64 | 57.66 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 52.38 | 49.50 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 36.25 | 32.96 |
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)
((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))
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