MW The meme-stock party is already fizzling out. What that means for the rest of the market.

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Vanda Research says reboot of 2021 frenzy isn't happening

It's been a newsy 24 hours, with everything from the Fed to big tech to some wild trading in copper giving investors something to think about.

The rally that's promised for Thursday - futures point to fresh records for the S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq COMP - is being driven by heady results from Meta and Microsoft. There's more big tech earnings to come, with Amazon and Apple lined up for later, and jobs data Friday.

So what of the meme-stock mania that has gripped investor attention in recent weeks? Our call of the day from Vanda Research says the air has already come out that tire and says don't expect a reboot of the excitement seen in the market drama of early 2021.

Here's Vanda's table showing average daily turnover for a group of stocks, including big tech and crypto names, and some of the companies that have been swept up in the recent bout of meme fever. For example, turnover in shares of OpenDoor $(OPEN)$ are a fraction of what they were in mid July.

Marco Iachini, senior vice president of research at Vanda, said apart from SoFi Technologies $(SOFI)$, most meme stocks that saw activity surge earlier in July are seeing daily turnover down anywhere from 30% to 90%.

One reason he cites for waning enthusiasm is the hefty earnings rolling out this week from major technology companies that are sucking up the attention from investors.

"Recent flow data tells a similar story: purchasing of Mag7+ stocks as a share of total inflows have rebounded and then stabilized, suggesting that while meme stock flows made headlines, they didn't ignite the kind of broad-based retail frenzy we saw during the original GME [GameStop] episode in 2021 or other broad small-cap squeezes," he said.

Another point he makes, is that appetite for retail buying tends to fade further into the year, and another component of the market may need to step up.

"The key implication here is around leadership in equities going forward. Since April, the rebound has largely been driven by retail and systematic flows. For the rally to sustain further into the second half, institutional discretionary investors may need to play a larger role from here," he said.

Retail investors have indeed been credited for helping stocks bounce off the April lows and institutional money has seen only slowing moving back into the market. He said their data indicates "recovering, but still modest optimism among institutional players," with more buying inspired if macro, trade and earnings data in the coming days shows resilience.

The markets

U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) are climbing, led by tech (NQ00) after big-name results. Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y are lower and the dollar DXY is down. Copper prices (HG00) are tumbling as refined metals were left out of Trump's import tariffs.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m     YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6362.9     0.06%   2.18%  8.18%   15.22% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     21,129.67  0.52%   3.61%  9.42%   20.06% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.362      -4.00   1.10   -21.40  38.00 
   Gold                                                                 3362.2     -0.27%  0.79%  27.39%  34.98% 
   Oil                                                                  69.89      5.64%   4.05%  -2.75%  -9.15% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

Meta's (META) AI spending seems to be paying off, as its profit soared past Wall Street forecasts and the Facebook parent gave an upbeat forecast. Shares are up 11%.

Microsoft $(MSFT.UK)$ delivered beats on revenue and profit driven by its cloud unit and shares are up 8%. Qualcomm shares (QCOM) are down 5% after the chip maker's revenue for some sectors disappointed.

Amazon $(AMZN.UK)$ (see preview) and Apple $(AAPL)$ (see preview) will report after the close of trading.

EBay stock $(EBAY)$ is surging after results.

Chinese authorities are demanding Nvidia (NVDA) explain alleged security risks over its H20 AI chips.

Weekly jobless claims and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price (PCE) index are due for release at 8:30 a.m.

Ford (F) warned of a bigger hit from tariffs, with gloomier guidance, and shares are sliding.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev shares $(BUD)$ are sinking after the Budweiser brewer reported weak volumes.

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The chart

There's no reason why stocks should stop rallying in August. That's based on this chart of a typical August performance for the S&P 500 since 1928, from Scott Rubner, a former Goldman Sachs tactical strategist now at Citadel Securities.

"Looking at the past 100 years, the S&P 500 tends to rally during the month of August, closing the month on the highs. This behavior is consistent with the number of vacations, pool parties, and the general unwillingness to put on a new short during August," said Rubner.

But expect institutional activity to decline in the last week of August, as Labor Day offers an opportunity to take a last-hurrah summer vacation.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   META    Meta 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   MSFT    Microsoft 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 
   AMZN    Amazon 
   GME     GameStop 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   AAPL    Apple 
   PLUS    EPlus 

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-Barbara Kollmeyer

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July 31, 2025 06:43 ET (10:43 GMT)

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