It's been a mediocre week for Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$161 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$10b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Philip Morris International surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.95 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Philip Morris International's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$41.1b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 38% to US$7.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$41.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.23 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Philip Morris International

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$187. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Philip Morris International at US$225 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$143. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Philip Morris International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Philip Morris International to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Philip Morris International analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Philip Morris International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

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