BlockBeats News, July 25th, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the diminishing power of the historical four-year cycle indicates that the long-term bullish forces for cryptocurrency will outweigh the traditional "four-year cycle" forces (if they still exist), and 2026 will be a strong year. The market will enter a "prolonged period of stability and prosperity," rather than a supercycle.

The diminishing power of the historical four-year cycle:

The impact of the halving every four years is weakening;

The current interest rate cycle is favorable for cryptocurrency, rather than unfavorable (unlike 2018 and 2022);

Due to regulatory improvements and industry institutionalization, the risk of liquidation has eased;

The most prominent emerging cyclical risk is the rise of "crypto reserve companies," which is worth paying attention to and has a significant impact.

Greater forces are operating on a timeline that is not synchronous with the historical four-year cycle:

The transition of assets to ETFs is a 5 to 10-year trend that began in 2024;

The broader institutional adoption has just begun (ETFs are still being approved on national account platforms, and pension funds and foundations are just starting to consider cryptocurrency, etc.);

Regulatory progress officially began in January 2025 and will continue for many years;

Wall Street is only now starting to build in the cryptocurrency space and will invest billions of dollars over the next quarters and years. This officially started with the passage of the "Genius Act" earlier this month.