If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. So after glancing at the trends within Xerox Holdings (NASDAQ:XRX), we weren't too hopeful.

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Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Xerox Holdings:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.011 = US$64m ÷ (US$8.2b - US$2.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

So, Xerox Holdings has an ROCE of 1.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Tech industry average of 14%.

See our latest analysis for Xerox Holdings

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Xerox Holdings compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Xerox Holdings for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

In terms of Xerox Holdings' historical ROCE trend, it isn't fantastic. The company used to generate 8.7% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. On top of that, the business is utilizing 51% less capital within its operations. The fact that both are shrinking is an indication that the business is going through some tough times. Typically businesses that exhibit these characteristics aren't the ones that tend to multiply over the long term, because statistically speaking, they've already gone through the growth phase of their life cycle.

In Conclusion...

In short, lower returns and decreasing amounts capital employed in the business doesn't fill us with confidence. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 50% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Xerox Holdings (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should know about.

While Xerox Holdings isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.