Key takeaways:
The measure – specific tariffs for Brazil and general reciprocal tariffs – is set to take effect on August 1. Although it is still not properly specified if the new additional duties will include sharp hikes on imports of steel and aluminium.
Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) told Fastmarkets on Tuesday July 15 that they are “closely monitoring the developments following the announcement made by the United States, but stress that the normative acts that will regulate the implementation of the measures have not yet been published.”
The strongest pushback so far has come from Brazil – a top US supplier of steel, aluminium and machinery – where Amcham Brasil released new trade data on July 10 showing the early impacts of existing tariffs on key sectors.
In its latest Commerce Monitor Brazil-USA, the group reported that although bilateral trade grew by 7.7% year on year in the first half of 2025 to $41.7 billion – the second-highest level on record – eight of the ten main Brazilian export products that declined are already facing tariff pressure. These include machinery and equipment (-23.6%), wood products (-14.0%), auto parts (-5.6%) and engines (-7.6%).
“The results from the first half of the year highlight the importance of bilateral trade for both economies and underscore the need to seek a balanced and pragmatic solution in light of the tariff escalation expected in the short term,” Abrão Neto, president of Amcham Brasil, said.
Brazilian exports to the US rose by 4.4% in the period, led by agricultural goods and aircraft, while imports from the US climbed by 11.5% to $21.7 billion – resulting in a $1.7 billion surplus for the US.
Brazil’s main manufacturing associations have joined the call for dialogue. The machinery manufacturers’ group ABIMAQ emphasized that the current US-Brazil trade balance is already favorable to the US and told Fastmarkets that the new tariffs are “unjustified and damaging.”
“The trade relationship is favorable to the United States, which nullifies the argument that there is an imbalance justifying the imposition of additional import tariffs,” the group told Fastmarkets on Wednesday July 16.
ABIMAQ also highlighted that the US is Brazil’s top destination for machinery exports – worth $3.54 billion in 2024 – and warned of significant risks to employment and investments if the new measures are enforced.
Auto parts associations Sindipeças and Abipeças also expressed concern, stating that the 50% blanket tariff would cause “broad damage to the Brazilian economy” and that the sector is awaiting legal clarity from the US before measuring full impacts.
Both groups said they support a diplomatic resolution led by Brazil’s industry confederation (CNI).
Amcham Brasil has been vocal about the potential damage of the 50% tariff, warning that it could cripple Brazil’s export capacity to the US, especially for steel slabs and other industrial goods.
Fastmarkets assessed steel slab export, fob main port Brazil at $470-480 per tonne on July 11, unchanged from the previous assessment on July 4.
“We are facing a serious scenario that could make a large portion of Brazilian exports to the United States unviable, especially industrial goods, causing harm to both economies,” Neto said. “The path forward must be dialogue and mutual understanding, which has always characterized the relationship between Brazil and the United States.”
In a joint statement with the US Chamber of Commerce released on Tuesday, the group said: “The US Chamber and Amcham Brasil urge the governments of the United States and Brazil to engage in high-level negotiations to avoid the implementation of the 50% tariff. The proposed 50% tariff would affect products essential to supply chains and US consumers, raising costs for families and reducing the competitiveness of strategic US industries.”
In 2024, Brazil exported $5.7 billion in iron and steel to the US, plus $267 million in aluminium. The new tariffs could also disrupt $1.4 billion worth of metallurgical coal imports from the US to Brazil – a key input in domestic steelmaking.
Amcham Colombia stressed that the tariff on Brazil was politically motivated, citing Trump’s reference to a “witch hunt” against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as part of the justification. The group said this reflects “a strategic use of trade as a tool of pressure,” rather than traditional trade logic.
In an internal note shared on Sunday July 13, the group assessed Colombia’s risk of receiving a similar tariff threat as “8 out of 10,” but emphasized that the US maintains a surplus with Colombia – making it an unlikely target for deficit-based measures.
Still, Amcham Colombia warned that tariff inclusion of semi-finished and downstream steel and alumini8um products (such as plates and profiles) poses risks to 237 Colombian companies in the sector.
Fastmarkets assessed steel heavy plate (thicker than 10mm) export, fob main port Latin America at $620-630 per tonne on July 4, unchanged from the previous month.
“It is essential for Colombia to maintain constant technical monitoring,” Maria Claudia Lacouture, president of Amcham Colombia, told local media on July 8. “A comprehensive strategy must combine active economic diplomacy with defense against market distortions and the strengthening of export sectors.”
Amcham Argentina has not issued a public statement, but local industry experts close to the Milei government said a deal is under negotiation to exempt 70-80% of Argentine exports – including wine, lemons and cotton – from the tariff list. Steel and aluminium, however, would remain under the 50% rate.
“It has emerged that negotiations are well advanced for a reciprocal tariff reduction that would cover around 80% of bilateral trade,” Marcelo Elizondo, president of the Argentine chapter of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and of the Argentine Committee of the ICC, said.
Amcham Mexico emphasized the need for coordination within the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) region, especially amid growing scrutiny of Mexican-made steel products that use imported slab from Brazil and Russia.
“Mexico, Canada and the US must sit down to negotiate the issues that are affecting us,” Carlos García, president of Amcham Mexico, said.
Mexico could face spill-over effects from both the steel-specific measures and new “melt and pour” origin rules being enforced by US authorities.
Chile, which exports large volumes of copper to the US, has not been directly targeted by the new tariffs, but Amcham Chile expressed concern over the long-term implications of arbitrary trade measures in a July 10 letter, and said that it remains committed to the long-standing US-Chile Free Trade Agreement, expecting measures to be discussed within that framework.
“We reiterate our willingness to collaborate with the authorities of Chile and the United States in the search for solutions, while we await the executive order from the US administration that will formalize the details of the announcement,” the group said.
Amcham Peru noted in a report shared in early May that while Peru is not a major metal exporter, US cost hikes could impact local vehicle importers and supply chains tied to US brands.
“According to Adex Data Trade, 9% of total vehicle imports come from the United States, while at the local level, American brands represent approximately 8% of total market placements, considering that their vehicles are imported from the world’s largest economy even though they also have production capacity in countries like Brazil, Mexico or Argentina,” the group said.
They added: “The direct impact would be limited; however, if the measures lead to higher costs in other markets such as China, Japan or Brazil, there could indeed be greater repercussions. The same could happen if the trade war begins to generate negative effects on the global economy.”
As the August 1 deadline approaches, Latin America’s chambers of commerce are collectively urging the US to reconsider the use of across-the-board tariffs, particularly on strategic sectors like metals, and to return to bilateral and regional diplomacy.
“The stable and productive trade relationship between the two largest economies in the Americas benefits consumers, supports jobs and promotes prosperity in both countries,” Amcham Brasil said. “We remain available to support initiatives that favor a negotiated, pragmatic and constructive solution.”
At the beginning of April, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the US’ initial reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. The plan was for the so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” which had affected over 180 countries, to resume on July 9.
But the US president sent letters to various countries announcing new rates in an effort to pressure them for trade agreements, and postponed the full reinstatement of tariffs to August 1.
In the meantime, Trump doubled the US import tariff on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%, a measure that took effect on June 4.
A new measure specifically targeting Brazil was announced on July 9, increasing the tariff on any product exported from Brazil to the US to 50%, also set to take effect on August 1 – though it is still unclear whether this will be cumulative with the steel-specific duties.
On July 12, Trump announced a 30% rate levied on Mexico as an increase to the original 25% fentanyl tariffs imposed. The Mexican government continues to anticipate a trade deal with the US despite this, as the Mexican steel market stalls amid the uncertainty.
In a White House interview on Tuesday, Trump said: “[I impose tariffs] because I’m able to do it. Nobody else would be able to. We have tariffs in place because we want tariffs and we want money flowing into the US.”
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