Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$2.0b arriving 2.1% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.13, 4.2% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Northern Trust after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Northern Trust's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$7.96b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 5.0% to US$8.33 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.13 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Northern Trust's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Northern Trust

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$120, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northern Trust at US$136 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$105. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Northern Trust is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Northern Trust's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Northern Trust's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Northern Trust.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Northern Trust's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Northern Trust's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$120, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Northern Trust. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Northern Trust going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Northern Trust that you should be aware of.

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