The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1158 ET - LME three-month aluminum rises 1.8% to $2,636.0 a metric ton on a weaker U.S. dollar and rising U.S. scrap imports. U.S. imports of primary aluminum products fell 15% on year in April and May, with Canadian volumes taking most of the hit as tariffs damp consumer demand, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. That said, with scrap exempted from tariffs, U.S. scrap aluminum imports rose 35% on year between March and May in order to feed rolling mills, MS says. A strong Midwest premium--the U.S. premium paid over LME prices--suggests some aluminum is buying is returning, and upcoming company earnings will be scrutinized by the market for more commentary around aluminum demand, MS says. LME three-month copper is up 1% at $9,777.50 a ton. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1126 ET - The frosty relationship between the U.S. and China, which has been exacerbated by tariff threats from President Trump since assuming office earlier this year, looks to be slowly warming -- which may support an improvement in the viability of U.S. commodity exports. Trump sounds more open to the two sides reaching a deal, says Zichun Huang of Capital Economics in a note. Speculation that the two sides may enter negotiations to essentially pick up where 2020's Phase One trade deal left off is good news for commodity traders--as that trade deal focused a lot of its obligations for China on purchases of U.S. exports. But, Huang warns, geopolitical volatility is still churning, which keeps the outlook for a new deal uncertain. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1124 ET - Gold futures rise, though they are on track to end the week slightly lower. Futures are up 0.4% at $3,359.40 a troy ounce, but are 0.1% lower on week. Gold's impressive year-to-date rally seems to be increasingly running out of steam, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. Though the U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest level against the euro in four years at the beginning of July, the precious metal traded broadly sideways, analysts write. Sharp increases in the prices of silver, platinum and other precious metals over the same time period indicate traders see little further upside in gold and are looking for alternatives, Commerzbank says. After gold's price increase of nearly 27% year to date, mostly in the first few months of 2025, this is hardly surprising, analysts say. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1020 ET - ICE cocoa futures are up 5.5%, setting the stage to break a three-day losing streak. Cocoa futures shed nearly 12% during that time, making today's uptick only a partial rebound. Data showing lower cocoa grindings to make powdered cocoa appears to be the main culprit for the recent slide, says JPMorgan's Commodities Research division in a note. "The long-awaited 2Q25 cocoa grind data has confirmed the demand destruction widely reported by the industry over recent months," says the firm. Analysts tell WSJ that signs of slowing demand amid higher prices for chocolate has traders choosing to fulfill their cocoa needs "hand-to-mouth," or not buying too far ahead of time in hopes of avoiding volatile pricing. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1012 ET - The arbitration panel decision clearing Chevron to acquire Hess with its 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek block may prove to be "a blessing in disguise" for Exxon Mobil and the government of Guyana, Carlos Bellorin of Welligence says in a note. Exxon's dominant presence has been a political flashpoint for the opposition in Guyana, and Chevron's entry could dilute "the perception of a single foreign operator wielding outsized influence," he says. Chevron will have to carefully navigate the situation with neighboring Venezuela, which has territorial claims on waters administered by Guyana, given Chevron's "significant footprint in Venezuela and its status as the country's most important commercial partner," Bellorin adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1008 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are up 0.5%, supported by stronger pork cutout prices. "After trading quickly lower through the last half of June, the pork cutout is back in a firmer trend," says StoneX in a note. End-of-day carcass cutout prices reported by the USDA have been on the rise over the past five days. "Recent strength there has been belly-led, but summertime trim markets remain very firm as well, and even the ham market has been firm which would have probably been less anticipated," says StoneX. Live cattle futures are down 0.2%, inching off from the record high reached this week. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0947 ET - The Corn Belt is expected to be hit with hot and dry weather through next week, according to AgMarket.net in a note, a factor that could create some stress for U.S. crops after spending most of the summer receiving supportive temperatures and rainfall. It may be one reason grain futures are higher, says the firm, adding that corn appears to be experiencing "more and more pollination issues across much of the Corn Belt." CBOT corn futures are up 1.3%, while soybeans rise 1% and wheat climbs 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0929 ET - The oil market's reaction to the latest EU sanctions on Russia hasn't been significant as previous efforts to target the Kremlin's flows have done little to curb exports, according to Capital Economics. "Market participants, nor we, seem convinced that the lower price cap, or any other measures introduced will be able to do any more to limit Russian exports," says economist Lily Millard. "The Brent crude price is on track to finish the week basically in line with close last week." The tepid reaction could also be attributed to OPEC's spare capacity and the prospect of further supply coming online over the coming months. Brent is up 0.9% at $70.13, while WTI rises 1% to $66.89 a barrel in afternoon trade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0925 ET - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.7% at $9,741.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.6% at $2,604.0 a ton. A weakening in the U.S. dollar has boosted the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities, making metal cheaper for international purchasers to buy and improving demand. Copper prices have additionally been buoyed by positive Chinese economic data. While prices remain below three-month highs, downside pressure has been curbed by improving Chinese spot demand and tight inventories outside the U.S., which remain around 38% lower on year, Britannia Global Markets' Neil Welsh says in a note. Within the U.S., elevated copper inventories have capped price gains, and some caution persists as the market waits for more clarity on potential exemptions tied to President Trump's tariff plan, Welsh adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0912 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher and heading for a weekly gain as summer heat supports power-sector demand. "The late-July heat wave and sense of a fundamental inflection point may drive a further test of resistance short-term," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. The storage surplus at 178 Bcf over the five-year average is close to peaking but may be slow to erode of the next two months, "likely keeping bullish pressures in check," he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $3.605/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0910 ET - New EU sanctions on Russian energy are lifting crude futures and having a bigger impact on diesel prices given already tight global stocks of the fuel. "Concerns over a tight global distillate supply have been revived by the possibility of curtailed Russian availability, continued low inventory levels within the eastern region of the U.S. and a stronger than expected U.S. economy that appears to be seeing steady demand from the U.S. industrial and freight sectors," Ritterbusch says in a note. "Diesel premium against crude and gasoline is stretching into new wide territory." Nymex diesel is up 3.7%, adding to yesterday's 3.3% rise, and gasoil on ICE Futures Europe is up 6.1%. WTI and Brent are up 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0849 ET - Fed Governor Christopher Waller's call for a rate cut in July boosts demands for Treasurys, sending yields down. The dollar also weakens. Waller is seen as a top contender for the central bank's chair. Recent public remarks by Fed officials have mostly cautioned against rate cuts, given the uncertainty created by still fluid tariffs. Odds of a cut in September rise to 58% from 51% yesterday, according to CME data. The 10-year yield is at 4.426% and the two-year at 3.870%. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.4%. The greenback weakens 0.5% against both the Swiss franc and the euro. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 18, 2025 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)

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