The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0953 ET - Germany's chemical and pharmaceutical industry doesn't expect an upturn until 2026, according to industry association VCI. The association says the rapid decline of recent years has halted despite economic and geopolitical challenges, though there will be no growth this year. Capacity utilization has improved but remains below the threshold for profitability, VCI says. A lack of orders is one of the biggest complaints of the association's member companies. VCI represents around 2,300 companies. In 2024, VCI member companies generated a turnover of around 240 billion euros. (sarah.sloat@wsj.com)

0438 ET - Antofagasta delivered a decent second quarter and is poised to report a good set of first-half results in mid-August, Berenberg analysts write. The Chilean miner benefited from higher gold prices which caused second-quarter net cash costs to come in below expectations, they write. The company reported net cash costs of $1.12 a pound, compared with analyst expectations of $1.31 a pound. For the first half, they expect $3.8 billion in revenue and Ebitda of $2.2 billion. Net debt however could push up depending on when Antofagasta deploys its $3.9 billion of capital expenditure, they write. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

2334 ET - Rio Tinto's 2Q production result is "encouraging" given the miner's mixed record over the past five years, UBS analysts say in a note. "We see this as a solid base for incoming CEO Simon Trott to pursue his mandate to lift operational efficiency, streamline functions and simplify the business," they say. That said, they reckon "it won't be easy." The miner faces challenges in Mongolia, where it runs a giant copper mine, and in ramping up the huge Simandou iron-ore project in Guinea, which risks impacting the global iron-ore market. Rio Tinto also faces questions on its lithium strategy and overall portfolio mix, the analysts say. UBS trims its 2025 EPS estimate by 5%, citing the impact of tariffs. It keeps a neutral rating and A$115/share target. Rio Tinto is up 1.3% at A$111.92. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2242 ET - Darma Henwa seems to be benefiting from structural transformation, UOB Kay Hian's Benyamin Mikael says in a research report. The coal miner is expanding in-house capacity, reducing subcontractor reliance and targeting third-party contracts, the analyst notes. This may drive a projected Ebitda CAGR of 42.1% over 2024-2028, the analyst says. The Indonesian company also owns a concession in Gayo Mineral Resources in Indonesia's Aceh. This marks strategic diversification beyond its core coal mining services, as the company seeks to tap copper and gold potential that could make substantial contributions. The brokerage initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating and a target price of IDR372.00. Shares are 0.5% lower at IDR189.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2239 ET - RBC Capital Markets reckons 29Metals posted "an OK result" for 2Q, with zinc output missing expectations but copper production in line. The miner's 2Q costs miss consensus estimates but matched RBC's expectations, the broker says in a note. "Importantly, costs are winding down at Capricorn, and cash balances went up." RBC has a sector perform rating and a A$0.30 target on the stock. "We await better cash flow generation from Golden Grove on grade and higher copper prices while remaining cognizant of the debt and upcoming capex," it says. 29Metals is down 10% at A$0.31. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2104 ET - Jefferies continues to worry about 29Metals's balance sheet following its 2Q update. 29Metals's output missed the bank's expectations by some 16%, although this was partly offset by stronger revenue from its Golden Grove operation. 29Metals's share price is down 8.7% at A$0.315 because of the miss. "Operational earnings volatility continues to accentuate balance sheet uncertainty," analyst Daniel Roden says. Jefferies thinks positive pathways for improving operations are emerging. Still, the bank says "ongoing uncertainty on the timing and quantum of Capricorn Copper suspension and restart costs, debt servicing, and Gossan Hill capex obfuscates medium-term funding requirements." Jefferies retains a hold call on 29Metals. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2013 ET - Hansol Chemical could post a 2Q earnings beat on strong revenue growth led by its precursor business, Daiwa Capital analysts Henny Jung and Yoonki Bae write in a note. The South Korean company's operating profit is projected to have risen 37% on year to 48 billion won for the April-June quarter, likely above the market consensus forecast of 44 billion won, the analysts say. They expect Hansol's year-over-year profit growth to continue through 2027, driven by high-margin chemical products. Daiwa is upbeat on Hansol's commitment to return 20%-50% of its net income to shareholders and buy back 200,000 additional shares by August. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

1903 ET - Hopes of more Chinese steel-industry reforms and improving demand from the country's property sector are buoying iron-ore prices, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar. However, Dhar says it's important to note that "the only true way to improve steel mill margins without hurting iron ore demand is by reducing China's outdated and unused steel capacity." Today that accounts for roughly 20%-25% of its capacity. "Given the year‑on‑year fall in China's steel output in May and June, it appears that steel output cuts is the policy direction," he says. As a result, iron-ore prices are likely to "eventually retrace lower," according to Dhar. Spot iron ore rose by 1.0% Wednesday, to US$99.10/metric ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1834 ET [Dow Jones]--Alcoa says its strongest argument against the current 50% tariff on imported aluminum is the long odds of quickly adding more U.S. aluminum production. Alcoa has been supplying the U.S. market from smelters in Canada where electricity costs are more favorable for operating a smelter. The U.S. imports about four million metric tons of aluminum annually, the company says. "It would probably cost $30 billion to put four million metric tons here," CEO William Oplinger says. "It would probably take us at least five years. We're educating the government on those facts." (robert.tita@wsj.com)

1835 ET - President Trump's goal of bringing aluminum production to the U.S. may be difficult to achieve, said Alcoa Chief Executive William Oplinger in the company's 2Q earnings call. Building a new aluminum plant in the U.S. would take about five years, while replacing all of the U.S. aluminum imports with domestic production would take six gigawatts of energy and $30 billion, Oplinger said. He said he has met several times with top U.S. and Canadian officials to convince them of the challenges of moving production to the U.S. and the benefits for both economies of open trade between Canada and the U.S. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

1833 ET - Most of the aluminum Alcoa produces in Canada has to be shipped into the U.S. by contract, but still the company has flexibility over the destination of 30% of its Canadian production. Since March, the company has sold 100,000 metric tonnes of Canadian metal normally destined for the U.S. to non-U.S. customers. "At a 50% tariff, you saw us take action. We have the ability of 30% of the Canadian volume to redirect that to a non-U.S. designation" Chief Executive William Oplinger said on the company's earnings call. "And we will do so as long as the netbacks make more sense to ship it to other markets." (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

1828 ET - Prices have increased since President Trump imposed a 50% tariff for aluminum, but not enough to offset the costs for Alcoa. Current aluminum market price is at 67 cents a pound, but Alcoa says it needs to be about 75 cents a pound to mitigate tariff cost. "That math doesn't work currently," Chief Executive William Oplinger said on the2Q earnings call. Alcoa expects $205 million more in costs from U.S. tariffs in 3Q, up from the $115 million incurred in 2Q. While higher prices could help minimize these losses, it could also lead to a decline in demand. "Our customers in the U.S. are seeing significantly higher prices than anywhere else in the world," Oplinger says. "Somebody ends up eating that tariff cost." (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 17, 2025 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)

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