It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited (HKG:177) share price down 12% in the last month. But at least the stock is up over the last three years. Arguably you'd have been better off buying an index fund, because the gain of 38% in three years isn't amazing.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Jiangsu Expressway was able to grow its EPS at 7.3% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 11% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Jiangsu Expressway's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Jiangsu Expressway the TSR over the last 3 years was 66%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Jiangsu Expressway's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 41%. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 9% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Jiangsu Expressway (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course Jiangsu Expressway may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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