AerCap Holdings N.V.'s (NYSE:AER) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.5x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 34x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
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While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, AerCap Holdings' earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings
AerCap Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 26% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.6% as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 13%, which paints a poor picture.
With this information, we are not surprised that AerCap Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of AerCap Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with AerCap Holdings (including 2 which are a bit concerning).
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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