Australians just learnt a lesson about the pitfalls of following the herd

The Sydney Morning Herald
10 Jul

This week we caught the first real glimpse into what makes the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock tick – she’s ready to shock, prepared to be unpopular and willing to be unpredictable.

She bravely made fools of just about all market traders and economists, and taught Australians a lesson about the pitfalls of following the herd.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock after the RBA board decision to keep rates on hold.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

She swam against the tide of popular opinion and professional forecasts and kept interest rates on hold – showing a (US Fed chairman) Jerome Powell-esque ability to ignore the noise and face the consequences of disappointment.

Powell’s blowback from his refusal to further cut US rates, until he has clearer visibility on inflation, has been punishing.

He has Donald Trump and his acolytes calling for his head on a stick and hurling at him relentless abuse including branding him a “fool”, a “numbskull” and a “stupid person”.

Despite Australia’s discourse of institutional and corporate grievance, the venting over the Reserve Bank’s interest rate call was tame compared with that in the US but still palpable.

This decision didn’t win Bullock any friends other than those without a mortgage and money in the bank earning interest.

At one end of the scale, the decision was described as disappointing – at the other, a community betrayal.

Mortgage holders felt let down and the ACTU labelled it a “blow for working people, especially those struggling under financial strain”.

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers chimed in with a comment laced with frustration when he said: “It’s not the result millions of Australians were hoping for or what the market was expecting.”

This decision didn’t win Bullock any friends other than those without a mortgage and money in the bank earning interest.

But the test of her steeliness should be admired.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell has been steadfast in his approach to rates despite a barrage of insults from the US president. Credit: AP

Her escape from the bullseye position of the community dartboard will be due to the near certainty that the Reserve Bank will lower rates when it meets again next month.

So everyone has to wait five weeks until they can begin celebrations.

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The difference between the caution on display from Bullock and the steadfastness from Powell is that in Australia’s case, there was almost universal agreement that cutting the interest rate this month was warranted.

Economists and markets had put the likelihood of a cut at 99 per cent – meaning Bullock needed to swim against a tide of expectation.

Both the US and Australian central banks have emphasised their reliance on data to determine monetary policy.

In Australia, that data has been all about getting inflation back to within the range of 2 to 3 per cent – which is where it is now.

One of the stickiest inflation items has been rent, which according to the latest figures from Domain has now flat-lined in almost all capital cities other than Sydney, where growth has slowed significantly.

US President Donald Trump has been calling for the Fed to lower interest rates immediately, accusing Powell of “playing politics” by leaving them unchanged.Credit: Getty Images

So Bullock and the Reserve Bank board had plenty of reasons – or excuses – to wave through a 25 basis point trimming of the interest rate.

But she took a belt-and-braces approach to inflation. While the monthly data was positive, the quarterly data needed to be seen before taking a rate cut plunge. And while the economic growth has slowed, employment remains solid and there is no overwhelming urgency to stimulate the economy.

Markets and economists who make careers out of second-guessing interest rate moves could be forgiven for misreading Bullock after comments in May that the board had considered a super-sized 50-basis-point rate cut back then.

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But a lesson has been learnt about the clarity of the market’s crystal ball, and about the character of Bullock.

She won’t be folding to follow the expectation script.

The Reserve Bank will make its judgment call independently of what politicians, unions or Australia’s band of borrowers think.

It’s not a popularity contest.

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