EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies rise amid US tariff uncertainty

Reuters
09 Jul
EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies rise amid US tariff uncertainty

Chile's consumer prices drop the most since 2023

Brazil's Haddad sees inflation within target by next year

Romanian central bank holds rates steady

J.P.Morgan downgrades EM currencies to "marketweight"

Updates with afternoon trading levels

By Ragini Mathur, Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan

July 8 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies rose in volatile trading on Tuesday as markets evaluated developments in U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff negotiations and anticipated additional trade deals ahead of the new deadline.

A day after imposing sharply higher tariffs on 14 trading partners, Trump reiterated his threat of 10% tariffs on products from Brazil, India, and other members of the BRICS group of countries.

He also announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and indicated that long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be implemented soon.

Earlier this week, Trump extended the deadline for negotiations to August 1 from July 9, providing a crucial three-week window for affected countries to finalize trade deals with the United States and stirring market volatility.

"The tariff announcement was a reminder that markets are not out of the woods. The White House has not really achieved their goals on trade and that could be a continued source of volatility," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X.

Asian currencies, including the South Korean won KRW=KFTC and the Thai baht TBH=TH, recovered to strengthen against the dollar on Tuesday, alongside South Africa's rand ZAR=.

Most Latin American currencies also advanced after Monday's declines, with Brazil's real BRL= leading gains with a 0.8% rise against the dollar.

Data from Brazil showed retail sales volumes unexpectedly fell in May from the previous month, corroborating views about an economic slowdown.

Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said he expects inflation to fall within the official target range next year.

Chile's peso CLP= reversed earlier losses and was last up 0.3%. Consumer prices in the Andean nation posted their first monthly drop this year in June, marking the steepest decline since late 2023 and fueling expectations of interest rate cuts by the central bank this month.

In Colombia, the consumer price index rose 0.10% in June, below analysts' forecasts, while the peso COP= was last up 0.1%.

Mexico's currency MXN= also recovered from initial losses to gain 0.3% against the dollar, though the local stock benchmark .MXX fell 0.4%.

Analysts at J.P.Morgan revised their expectations on emerging market currencies to "marketweight" from "overweight", citing that "conditions are in place for a tactical retreat" following the recent gains of EM currencies against the dollar.

Most emerging market currencies advanced against the dollar, while the dollar index =USD touched multi-month lows amid a global shift away from U.S. assets.

An index tracking EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS was last up more than 7% year-to-date, compared to a 10% decline in the dollar benchmark.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS was flat, as losses in Mexico and Brazil .BVSP offset gains in Argentina .MERV and Chile .SPIPSA.

In other emerging markets, Romania's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected, while cautioning that newly approved tax increases are likely to push annual inflation significantly higher in the short term.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1231.1

0.4

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2350.45

-0.01

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

139045.1

-0.32

Mexico IPC .MXX

57181.36

-0.42

Argentina Merval .MERV

2122583.88

3.544

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8321.25

0.78

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1690.3

0.33

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.4444

0.78

Mexico peso MXN=

18.6038

0.3

Chile peso CLP=

940.28

0.26

Colombia peso COP=

4042.5

0.09

Peru sol PEN=

3.545

0.51

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1254

0.80

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1260

0.79

(Reporting by Ragini Mathur, Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

((Ragini.Mathur@thomsonreuters.com; Shashwat.Chauhan@thomsonreuters.com))

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