Monday, July 7, 2025

It was a very eventful holiday-shortened week in the stock market last week, where we saw monthly and weekly jobs reports as well as the signage of perhaps the biggest tax cut bill into law in American history on the 4th of July last Friday. We also saw auto sales reported and Services & Manufacturing PMI updates.

In all, we saw market indexes close at their weekly highs Thursday afternoon, surging to levels not seen since late February, which was prior to talk — and later action — on U.S. tariffs slapped on virtually all global trading partners. But that 90-day window (first graced a week after the announcement of major tariff rates) this morning has now been pushed back yet again, from July 9th (which was the original 90-day closing window) to now August 1st.

This does, at least on its face, point to a potentially contentious trade issue down the road: the threat now is that, should U.S. trading partners fail to reach a deal with the White House on new trade policies by the end of this month, then the draconian tariff levels promised on “Liberation Day,” April 2nd, go into effect. Then again, with cans continuing to be kicked, and hockey sticks being pushed out further, it’s tough to know how seriously these threats will ultimately be taken.

Currently, all major indexes are now in the green year-to-date — nearly all near record highs, in fact — with the small-cap Russell 2000 enjoying a push back into positive territory for the first time since this winter. From April 9th lows — prior to the “Liberation Day” tariffs paused — we are up an outstanding +17% on the Dow, +20% on the S&P 500, +21% on the Russell 2000 and +27% on the Nasdaq.

The question now is: where do we go from here? Pre-market futures are taking a little off the top this morning: -18 points on the S&P 500, -31 points on the Dow and -98 points on the Nasdaq.

What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week

We have no major economic reports hitting the tape today; market participants may be just finishing up their long weekends about now. And compared to last week, it will be quiet around here over all. The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting — where the Fed once again decided to keep interest rates at their 4.25-4.50% level, where they’ve been all of 2025 so far — are probably the biggest news on this front, aside from Weekly Jobless Claims, if that gives you any indication.

With Congress’ main achievement for the year — the tax cut bill — now behind them, we’re not likely to hear much from Capitol Hill this week either. Next week brings us the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), along with monthly Retail Sales figures, but this week we get to take it relatively easy.

Delta Air Lines DAL reports Q2 earnings ahead of the bell this Thursday, which unofficially sounds the bell for Q2 earnings season to begin. We won’t see the big banks — among them JPMorgan JPM, Citigroup C and Wells Fargo WFC report Q2 earnings until a week from tomorrow. Joining Delta will be joined by Conagra CAG and Levi Strauss LEVI reporting later this week.

The Middle East seems to have cooled down and, despite a tragic flood in Texas over the weekend, so have domestic issues for the most part. Perhaps it has gotten “quiet… too quiet,” but for now, we’ve earned ourselves a little peace.

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