Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2245 ET - The U.S.'s 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods is at the lower end of the expected range, UBS economist William Deng says in a research note. Vietnam's decision to allow American goods to enter the country duty-free is "largely expected," the economist says, as more access for U.S. products in areas such as technology and energy should benefit Vietnam's growth. Details of the trade deal are critical to determine the economic impact on Vietnam, especially to determine transshipment goods, which face a 40% tariff. "A key watch point ahead is whether there is any detail about further opening up financial markets for U.S. and international capital," he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

2145 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the U.S. dollar in early Asia trading. House Republican leaders worked to win over GOP critics of President Trump's tax-and-spending bill ahead of votes as soon as late Wednesday. "Fiscal stimulus from his signature tax bill would keep markets wary about rising federal debt," MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a report. Markets' focus is on this bill, U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day and any U.S. announcements regarding the 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs lapsing on July 9. USD/KRW edges 0.1% lower to 1,355.09 and USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2725. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1940 ET - Gold edges lower in the early Asian session amid hopes for more trade deals, which could reduce the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal. President Trump announced Wednesday that the U.S. and Vietnam have struck a tariff deal that will see American goods enter the country duty-free. In return, the U.S. will charge 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods, Trump said, instead of the 46% tariffs he had announced in April. "The deal is seen as a sign that more deals may be coming and a hope that trade tension will not re-escalate as 9 July approaches," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. Spot gold is 0.2% lower at $3,350.73/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1622 ET - Gold futures settle higher after ADP's latest projections showed that American employers shed 33,000 workers last month. The drop-off was unexpected among investors, which in turn seemed to give gold a spark in afternoon trading. Front-month gold futures settled up 0.3% to $3,348 per troy ounce, making it the third consecutive gain. Also supporting higher gold futures are claims from President Trump that he won't extend a July 9 deadline to resume higher tariffs on many countries targeted by Liberation Day in April. Trump also announced a trade deal with Vietnam, which will allow American goods to enter the country without duties. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1424 ET - The Trump administration's latest trade deal is welcome news for Nike investors. The deal lowers proposed tariffs on goods from Vietnam, where Nike sources much of its sneakers and apparel. The news removes some uncertainty on the sportswear giant's tariff-related cost increases, which has fueled investor fears more than the actual severity of tariff policies, BMO Capital Markets analyst Simeon Siegel says. "Before you can fix the problem, you need to diagnose it. Today felt like a step closer to diagnosis," he tells WSJ. Last week, the company had warned of a gross incremental cost increase of about $1B due to tariff rates in place. Nike climbs 4%. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1421 ET - The Trump administration's deal to lower proposed tariffs on goods from Vietnam to 20% from 46% isn't enough to help footwear retailers, according to Matt Priest, who heads the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America. Vietnam accounted for $10.6 billion in shipments last year and is on pace to become the biggest supplier for the U.S. footwear industry this year, he says. "Disrupting that pipeline with additional tariffs would hit American consumers and our industry hard," he says. He urges the administration to acknowledge steep footwear duties already in place and avoid adding more strain. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1158 ET - Investors in short-term Treasury debt are watching carefully as Congress advances a reconciliation bill that would raise the debt ceiling. Money-market funds have been avoiding holding Treasury securities that come due around when the government could run short of borrowing authority--which would probably be sometime later this summer, Allspring money-market portfolio manager Michael Bird tells The Wall Street Journal. "We've seen some kinks in the T-bill curve recently, especially with 6-week bills and 2-month bills that have lately fallen in that date range," Bird says. Such bills would likely rally when debt-ceiling legislation hits President Trump's desk, reassuring the market that there won't be any repayment hiccups, Bird says. (matt.grossman@wsj.com, @mattgrossman)

0935 ET - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.35% at $9,977.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.2% at $2,606.50 a ton. Robust Chinese demand and U.S. over-imports ahead of a potential tariff are tightening the copper market outside the U.S., Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. The U.S. bank forecasts 6% growth in Chinese refined copper demand for 2025. This, coupled with record U.S. imports, is driving prices higher and tightening global markets. China's copper imports will likely rise in the second half of the year even with slowing demand growth, analysts say. Goldman sees upside risks to its copper forecast for August of $10,050 a ton as China and the U.S. compete for copper and inventories outside the U.S. drop to record lows. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0748 ET - Gold futures make small gains on market uncertainty and safe-haven demand. Futures are up 0.1% at $3,353.20 a troy ounce. The precious metal has risen on safe-haven demand as Iran suspends cooperation with the United Nations' atomic agency. This threatens to increase geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and the rest of the global West. At the same time, market uncertainty around the U.S. trade policy is high ahead of July 9, the expiration date of the 90-day reprieve on President Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs. So far, just one trade deal--with the U.K.--has been agreed to since Trump unveiled sweeping tariff plans for most countries around the world. Though, the U.S. administration has promised that more deals are being worked on. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0546 ET - Investors' switch away from the dollar and from U.S. assets could hurt dollar-denominated investment-grade credit more than their high-yield peers, Deutsche Bank credit strategists say in a note. The U.S. investment-grade credit market has a lager share of international investors than the riskier high-yield market, the strategists say. Investors are rebalancing portfolios away from U.S. assets due to concerns about policy uncertainty under President Trump and risks to the U.S. economy. "'Dedollarisation' should affect investment-grade markets more than high-yield markets," the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0535 ET - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper flat at $9,945 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.4% at $2,592.50 a ton. Copper and aluminum are 2.9% and 1% higher on-week, however, on a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns of supply tightness for copper. Copper tested the $10,000-a-ton level in the prior session for the first time since March as the metal continues to flow to the U.S. ahead of a potential import tariff. Spot prices for copper are elevated, up 0.2% at $10,061 a ton, as LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses continue to deplete in order to fuel the U.S. import demand. Refined copper demand has also increased outside the U.S., with three-month Chinese solar installations increasing 150% and air conditioning sales up 8% on year. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0518 ET - Uncertainties linger despite China and the U.S. signing an agreement on a trade framework last month, HSBC economists say in a note. "Ultimately, businesses' long-term investment decisions need more certainty through a clear longer-term negotiating plan between China and the U.S., as well as final tariff agreements between the U.S. and its other trading partners," the economists say. The deadline for trade-deal negotiations is coming up next week, and President Trump has said this week that he doesn't plan to extend the tariff deadline. Uncertainty around U.S. levies on other countries poses risks to global demand, and in turn to demand for Chinese goods, HSBC says. The bank forecasts China's exports to fall 2%-3% on year in 2H. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 02, 2025 22:45 ET (02:45 GMT)

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