EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks mixed as markets await more US trade developments

Reuters
02 Jul
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks mixed as markets await more US trade developments

Brazil's industrial output falls in May

Mexican peso expected to fall after US tariff pause - poll

Poland delivers surprise interest rate cut

By Ragini Mathur, Purvi Agarwal

July 2 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies were mixed against a climbing dollar on Wednesday, while regional stocks were mixed as investors monitored U.S. trade developments ahead of President Donald Trump's July tariff deadline.

Investors remained on edge as Trump said he was not considering extending the deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the U.S. The status of talks with Japan remained unclear, while a deal was expected with India and struck with Vietnam.

The dollar index =USD edged 0.5% higher after nine sessions of declines, its longest losing streak since 2008, though concerns remained over the potential impact of Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill, estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the country's debt pile.

Most currencies in Latin America slipped on the day, with Mexico's currency MXN= down 0.3%, and the Brazilian real BRL= was little changed.

A Reuters poll showed that the rallying Mexican peso is set to slip after Trump's tariff pause expires next week.

Investors have been seeing Latam assets as a safe space from Trump's tariffs, barring Mexico, as exports from Latam countries excluding Mexico to the U.S. are relatively less compared with exports from Asian economies.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was 0.2% lower. However, the index has gained nearly 18% in the first six months of 2025, its most since 2009, also benefiting from a shift out of U.S. assets.

On the day, the Chilean peso CLP= was slightly higher, in line with copper prices.

Colombia's peso COP= outperformed with a 0.4% gain, helped by rising oil prices, while Peru's sol PEN= was up 0.2% in low volumes.

"We see good reasons for many EM currencies to maintain their strong performance (in the second half) ... a lot has resulted from the dollar simply being outplayed, but a strong counterattack by the USD is not in our playbook," said analysts at HSBC Global Research.

They also said investors were more focused on upcoming elections in the region, and that until those elections pointed to "market-friendly outcomes," the short-term concerns may be overlooked.

The region's stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS dipped 0.2% on the day.

Heavyweight Brazilian shares .BVSP lost 0.8%. Industrial production in the country fell 0.5% in May from April, in line with the expectations.

Colombian stocks .COLCAP were up 0.3%, while those in Argentina .MERV gained 0.9%. Mexico's stock index .MXX was up 0.2%.

Elsewhere in EMs, Poland's central bank delivered a surprise 25 basis-point cut to its main interest rate, while also lowering its inflation expectations for the upcoming years.

"A renewed softening in the latest wage growth data, a de-escalation of Middle East tensions, and an improvement in the outlook for Polish utility price inflation may have helped to tip the balance on the MPC," said Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= shed 0.4%.

Highlights:

** No scope for rate cuts with inflation outside tolerance band, Hungary central banker says

** Moody's Ratings downgrades Afreximbank's ratings to Baa2; changes outlook to stable

** Emerging market debt sale surge defies global turmoil amid signs of de-dollarisation

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1229.45

0.02

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2351.26

-0.24

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

138428.6

-0.8

Mexico IPC .MXX

57927.04

0.2

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8274.38

0.33

Argentina Merval .MERV

2050011.8

0.93

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1679.85

0.3

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.4615

-0.06

Mexico peso MXN=

18.777

-0.29

Chile peso CLP=

927.1

0.1

Colombia peso COP=

4007.32

0.4

Peru sol PEN=

3.555

0.14

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1238

-1.29

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1220

0.41

(Reporting by Ragini Mathur and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

((Ragini.Mathur@thomsonreuters.com;))

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10