New Inflation Data, Powell's Testimony, Micron and Nike Earnings: What to Watch This Week

Dow Jones
Jun 23

Equities mostly churned sideways last week. The main event, the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary-policy meeting, turned out to be a nonevent.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would maintain its wait-and-see approach, while the June Summary of Economic Projections showed a median of two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, unchanged from March's projections.

Powell will be in the spotlight again this coming week as he heads to Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday to deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. President Donald Trump once again called on the Fed chair to cut interest rates after the FOMC opted not to do so this past Wednesday.

Friday's inflation update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be the key economic release of the week, while a bevy of data will further inform us on the state of a sluggish housing market.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Monday, S&P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index on Tuesday, while the Census Bureau reports new home sales on Wednesday. On Thursday, the NAR reports pending home sales, and on Friday, the BEA releases the personal consumption expenditures price index.

Three large-cap companies report quarterly results on an otherwise light earnings calendar.

FedEx releases results on Tuesday, Micron Technology on Wednesday, and Nike on Thursday.

Monday 6/23

FactSet Research Systems and KB Home release earnings.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for June. Consensus estimates are for a 51 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 52.9 for the Services PMI. Both estimates would be roughly one point less than the respective May figures.

The NAR reports existing-home sales for May. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million homes sold, slightly less than in April.

Tuesday 6/24

AeroVironment, BlackBerry, Carnival, FedEx, and TD Synnex report quarterly results.

S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April. The seasonally adjusted National HPI fell by 0.3% month over month in March, the first decline since January 2023.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Expectations are for a 99 reading, one point more than in May. The index rebounded sharply in May after five consecutive months of declines, in part due to a de-escalation of tariff threats.

Powell delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. He will do the same before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. Powell might be pressed by members of Congress as to why the Fed hasn't cut interest rates this year.

Wednesday 6/25

General Mills, Jefferies Financial Group, Micron, and Paychex announce earnings.

The Census Bureau reports new home sales for May. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 691,000 new single-family homes sold, 52,0000 fewer than in April.

Thursday 6/26

McCormick, Nike, and Walgreens Boots Alliance hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for May. Consensus estimate is for an 8.3% month-over-month rise in new orders for manufactured durable goods, after a 6.3% decline in April. The data for this release has been particularly volatile in recent months due to the impact of tariffs.

The BEA releases its third and final estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product growth. GDP is seen declining at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2%, unchanged from the BEA's previous estimate. The data were distorted by a record trade imbalance in the first quarter, which negatively impacted growth.

The NAR releases its Pending Home Sales Index for May. Expectations are for pending home sales to be flat month over month, after a 6.3% decline in April.

Friday 6/27

The BEA releases the personal consumption expenditures price index for May. Economists forecast a 2.3% year-over-year increase, two-tenths of a percentage point more than in April. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 2.6%, compared with 2.5% previously. The annual change in the core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, is at its lowest level since March 2021.

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