JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.99%) is a sprawling financial services titan. This mega-bank has produced a total return of 208% in the past five years. It's difficult for anyone to complain about that type of gain.

As of this writing, shares of JPMorgan Chase trade just 5% off of their all-time high. Investors might have their eyes on the business if they're looking to gain more exposure to the industry in their portfolio, but where will this top bank stock be in five years?

Image source: JPMorgan Chase.

Strong financial performance

JPMorgan's impressive stock performance in the past five years has been driven, unsurprisingly, by strong financial gains. In 2024, the company reported revenue of $178 billion, which was 54% higher than in 2019. What's more, diluted earnings per share soared 84% during that time.

The momentum has continued into 2025, despite recent economic challenges. In Q1, total deposits were up 2% year over year, providing low-cost funding to power loan growth. Net interest income rose 1%, with non-interest income jumping 17%.

This doesn't mean there aren't risks to be mindful of. Since banks in general are so exposed to the economy and credit cycle, a potential cause for concern is the chance of a recession happening. Even CEO Jamie Dimon isn't exactly the most optimistic. On the Q1 2025 earnings call, he agreed with JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, putting the chance of a recession at 50-50.

Dominating the banking sector

As of March 31, JPMorgan Chase had a whopping $2.5 trillion in total assets on the balance sheet. What's more, it carries a massive market cap of $736 billion. And in the last 12 months, it raked in $181 billion in net revenue. This is a truly colossal organization.

This business is the clear leader in the financial services sector, with its hands in numerous different areas. Not only does JPMorgan have a significant presence in capital markets and investment banking activities, but it's also a strong player in asset and wealth management, as well as in consumer banking. This diversity presents a favorable setup. Weakness in one area can be more than offset by robustness in another.

Investors can rest assured knowing that this company won't be disrupted anytime soon, if ever. It has built up durable competitive advantages that support its staying power.

There are cost advantages that stem from the company's huge scale. It's able to leverage expenses and investments in many areas, such as technology and marketing efforts.

Then there are switching costs, both for corporate customers and individual consumers. Because JPMorgan Chase can essentially offer any financial product or service its customers need, the more ingrained it becomes, the harder it is for customers to leave.

It also helps to have industry veteran Jamie Dimon at the helm, who many agree is one of the best CEOs. He successfully navigated the Great Recession, making JPMorgan an even better bank.

One major headwind for investors

The stock has done remarkably well in the past. And given the factors just mentioned, investors are probably wondering why they don't own JPMorgan Chase.

Despite a positive view of the company, I don't believe future returns will resemble the past. The main reason why comes down to valuation. Shares trade at a steep price-to-earnings ratio of 13, which is above the trailing five- and 10-year averages.

Investors familiar with the banking industry might be more inclined to look at the price-to-book ratio. As of this writing, this metric stands at 2.2, near the highest it has been in the past 20 years. Consequently, I wouldn't be surprised if this stock lags the broader market between now and 2030.