MW Could Paramount's sale collapse under pressure from Trump? Analysts are starting to think so.

By Lukas I. Alpert

Paramount's sale to Skydance Media has stalled amid regulatory paralysis - and Lightshed Partners predicts that if a resolution isn't reached by October, the deal will be called off

It's been nearly a year since Paramount Global reached an agreement to sell itself to Skydance Media, but the deal has dragged on amid uncertainty due to pressure from the Trump administration.

Both sides have remained steadfast that the deal will ultimately be completed, but analysts are starting to wonder if the sale could ultimately fall through.

"We are increasingly concerned the deal could collapse as Paramount is paralyzed by legal fears surrounding the pending President Trump-CBS '60 Minutes' lawsuit," wrote analyst Rich Greenfield of Lightshed Partners in a note.

All aspects of the sale seem to be in place, but the closing of the deal has stalled pending Federal Communications Commission approval of the transfer of control of several broadcast licenses held by CBS and many of its local broadcast stations.

Complicating the deal has been a $20 billion defamation suit filed by President Donald Trump against CBS, which alleges that its flagship "60 Minutes" news program deceptively edited an interview with Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential race.

Legal experts have largely viewed the suit as meritless and something that would ultimately be dismissed, but Paramount's (PARA) largest shareholder, Shari Redstone, has pushed to settle the case to smooth the path for the deal to go through.

The move to settle comes after Walt Disney Co.'s $(DIS)$ ABC News settled a similar defamation suit with Trump for $15 million.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount offered $15 million to settle the lawsuit, but that Trump has demanded more, plus an apology. The move to settle has roiled CBS, leading to the resignation of several high-ranking news executives.

Paramount and Skydance have steadfastly said they expect the deal to close by this summer. Representatives for both companies didn't immediately reply to requests for comment.

In his note, Lightshed's Greenfield laid out a timetable for when the Paramount deal might become irreparably hamstrung by legal paralysis.

He said the FCC typically approves or denies a transaction within 180 days of starting its review. Greenfield noted that the current FCC chair, Brendan Carr, indicated that the clock had been restarted when he took the job in late January, pushing the timetable for an FCC ruling to the end of July.

But that is not a rule, so Greenfield expects there to be no resolution of the FCC matter until there is some kind of deal reached over Trump's lawsuit. A message seeking comment from the FCC wasn't immediately returned.

The agreement between Paramount and Skydance has two automatic 90-day extensions built in for such regulatory holdups. The first kicked in at the beginning of April, with the second starting on July 7.

So if the transaction isn't resolved by Oct. 6, the parties will likely seek to terminate the deal, rather than continue to extend the review, Greenfield predicted. If the deal is scuttled over regulatory approval, Redstone will not have to hand over a $400 million breakup fee.

Adding further pressure on Redstone to make a deal with Trump is the difficult position her holding company, National Amusements Inc. - through which she holds her shares in Paramount - finds itself in.

Many have predicted that National Amusements, which has high levels of debt, could face bankruptcy if the Paramount sale doesn't go through. Among that debt is a $400 million loan from merchant bank BDT & MSD Partners as well as the Ellison family.

Skydance is owned by David Ellison, whose father, Oracle Corp. $(ORCL)$ co-founder Larry Ellison, is one of the richest people in the world and is partly financing the $8 billion deal along with private-equity firm Redbird Capital Partners.

Greenfield said it is possible that National Amusements could pursue other deals if the Skydance sale falls through, but it would likely have to be the sale of minority control with "a long-term path to control" after the Trump/CBS lawsuit is settled and the regulatory issue is resolved.

In his note, Greenfield raised the question of whether Trump actually wants to settle the lawsuit at all.

"If Trump's goal is to weaken the press and cause persistent fear of lawsuits that could negatively impact business combinations, keeping the CBS/60 Minutes lawsuit ongoing could be in the president's best interests," he wrote. "Creating fear that combinations involving news assets will not be approved could be a compelling weapon for Trump that outweighs cash payments to settle a lawsuit.

A request for comment from the White House wasn't immediately returned.

-Lukas I. Alpert

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June 05, 2025 12:53 ET (16:53 GMT)

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