MW The S&P 500 closes at 6,000 as bulls aim for return to record territory

By William Watts

New highs may require a pickup in earnings expectations: strategist

The S&P 500 finished just a hair above 6,000 Friday - a key psychological level that technicians see potentially setting the stage for a possible run back to a record high as investors continue to shake off tariff jitters and recession fears that rocked the market earlier this year.

The S&P 500 SPX ended Friday at 6,000.36, after a gain of 1%. That leaves it just 2.3% below its record finish of 6,144.15 set on Feb. 19 and marks the first close above 6,000 since Feb. 21.

"While no one's made a hat for it that I've seen, the 6,000 level on the S&P 500 is a key psychological threshold that the market has struggled to establish a firm foothold above for eight months now," Matthew Weller, global head of market research at StoneX, said in an email Friday morning.

After its February record, the S&P 500 began a pullback that took it nearly 20% lower - the threshold for a bear market - on April 8, before it subsequently set off on a recovery. That bounce has seen stocks take back all of their tariff-induced April losses and then some, with the S&P 500 coming within a whisker of 6,000 and hitting an intraday high of 5,999.70 in Thursday's session before turning back.

It finally pushed back above the threshold on Friday as investors cheered the May jobs report, trading as high as 6,016.87 in early trading before trimming its gain.

"What people are looking for is to see if the S&P can close above 6,000," said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in a Friday note ahead of the close. "Clearly, the trend remains positive."

At the same time, market watchers warn that the tariffs are still likely to have an effect on employment, inflation and, of course, corporate earnings. After a strong first quarter, earnings expectations for the remainder of the year have declined in recent weeks, Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, said in a Friday note.

"Given the rebound in equities and elevated expectations, the bar has been raised to break out to a fresh high, likely requiring an increase in earnings expectations," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

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Weller said that from a near-term perspective, 6,000 marks the top of a three-week ascending-triangle pattern. That means a confirmed weekly close above it "could set the stage for a retest of the record highs near 6,150 in short order."

An ascending triangle consists of a horizontal line marking two or more recent highs near the same level and an ascending trend line drawn off a series of rising market lows (see below).

Investors may still want to see a more convincing move above 6,000 for reassurance, analysts said.

Meanwhile, a big downside reversal off of 6,000 "would raise fears of a lower high in the broader index and would raise the odds of a deeper retracement back toward the mid-5,000s after the torrid rally off the April lows," Weller said.

-William Watts

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June 06, 2025 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT)

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