EchoStar (SATS 15.86%) shares were bouncing back today, up 10% as of 2 p.m. ET.

EchoStar's shares have been under severe pressure since the beginning of the year, but especially in the past week. That's because management decided to not make two separate interest payments on its debt, as it awaits a decision from the FCC regarding its spectrum. Management has a 30-day grace period to do so before the company is technically in default.

The spectrum debate has to do with the pace of EchoStar's 5G rollout, and is also indirectly linked up with Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Can EchoStar bounce back?

Back in May, the new Trump-appointed FCC director sent a letter to EchoStar, stating that the extension it was granted to complete its 5G network buildout by the prior administration was under review. EchoStar had purchased valuable spectrum years ago, on the terms that it would build a 5G network to increase competition in the industry. However, EchoStar's buildout has been slow, which is perhaps not surprising, given its declining legacy business in satellite TV.

In an interesting wrinkle, Musk's SpaceX had led a campaign to win more satellite spectrum for its own services, including the spectrum held by EchoStar. That may have played a part in the FCC's initiation of a review, given Musk's ties to the Trump administration.

However, late yesterday, EchoStar issued a press release introducing its new Boost Mobile Celero tablet, the Celero5G TAB, a low-cost tablet that takes advantage of EchoStar's 5G network. While normally not that significant, the announcement of a new 5G product could go a ways toward making EchoStar's case to the FCC that it deserves to keep its spectrum.

Furthermore, it appears Musk's relationship with the Trump administration is now on the outs, given Musk's storm of posts today criticizing the administration and Republicans in Congress for the deficit expansion in the "Big, Beautiful Bill" making its way through Congress.

If Musk and Trump have a falling out, then the FCC may not aggressively pursue EchoStar's spectrum on behalf of SpaceX, if SpaceX's campaign was in fact a motivating factor in initiating the review.

Image source: Getty Images.

EchoStar is a high-risk, high-reward turnaround play

EchoStar's stock has been punished severely, so it could make for a turnaround play if in fact it's able to deploy 5G to more areas and grow its low-cost Boost Mobile offerings. However, its high debt, declining legacy satellite TV business, and unresolved battle with the FCC remain big risks.

Betting on a big recovery is a highly risky proposition, and only appropriate for speculators at this point.