MW Amid tariff agita, Wall Street is a bit more cautious than normal on second-quarter earnings

By Bill Peters

Earnings Watch: Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Victoria's secret and other retailers report during the week

Even as tariff-related turmoil continues, consumer sentiment improved at the end of last month, and few companies are outright throwing long-term forecasts out the window. But Wall Street has shown signs of getting a bit more cautious on the second quarter.

According to a FactSet analysis published on Friday, analysts have trimmed their second-quarter earnings-per-share estimates a bit more than normal. Those estimates, for S&P 500 companies, fell by 4% from March 31 to May 29.

Over the first two months of a quarter, that report noted, analysts generally cut their estimates. Analysts make those cuts to account for financial realities or, some critics say, to lower the bar overall. Wall Street expects 5% per-share profit growth overall for the second quarter, according to FactSet.

On average, over those first two months of a quarter, analysts over the past five years have cut their earnings-per-share estimates by 2.6%. That average compares with 3.1% over the past 20 years.

Wall Street had similarly grown more downcast than usual heading into first-quarter results, as optimism over the new administration - along with hopes for tax cuts and deregulation - gave way to worries over the impact of tariffs on top of higher costs of living. Trump has said tariffs are necessary to restore manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and reshape a global trade regime he says has been unfair to the nation.

The most punitive of those tariffs, announced last month, are on hold temporarily. But an appeals court last week said that for the moment, they could remain in effect either way, after putting the brakes on a trade court's decision finding they were unlawful.

This week in earnings

More retailers will report results this week, after many chains last month said they would carefully approach any price increases resulting from tariffs and tried to emphasize flexibility in their manufacturing.

Discount chains Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. $(OLLI)$ and Five Below Inc. (FIVE) report results during the week. So do pet-supplies retailer Petco Health and Wellness Co. Inc. $(WOOF)$ and clothing rental platform Rent the Runway Inc. $(RENT)$.

Elsewhere, results are due from PVH Corp. (PVH) - the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger - Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH), Lands' End Inc. $(LE)$ and G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (GIII), which owns DKNY and Karl Lagerfeld.

Soup and snack maker Campbell's Co. $(CPB)$ also reports earnings during the week, as does Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman Corp. $(BF.B)$. Avocado grower Mission Produce Inc. $(AVO)$ will also issue earnings as it tries to navigate Trump's more aggressive trade stance on Mexico. Ski-resort operator Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) also publishes results, following a leadership shakeup and a dip in its stock price this year.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. $(HPE)$, Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. $(CRWD)$, Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, Thor Industries Inc. $(THO)$ and Docusign Inc. (DOCU) also report during the week.

The call to put on your calendar

Victoria's Secret: Even before a security mishap led Victoria's Secret & Co. to take its website offline, analysts already had concerns about the lingerie and activewear maker, whose results are due on Thursday. UBS analysts last month said women's intimate apparel "lacks significant growth drivers to outperform," although they were still upbeat about demand for athleisure.

Meanwhile, the company faces threats from rival celebrity brands and tariffs. Victoria's Secret $(VSCO)$, in its most recent annual report, said that it could rethink how it makes and prices its products in response to the ongoing trade tensions. The results and earnings call could shed more light on how Victoria's Secret handling the ongoing trade drama and increasingly complicated cybersecurity issues.

The numbers to watch

Dollar Tree, Dollar General sales, outlook: Dollar-store chains Dollar General Corp. $(DG)$ and Dollar Tree Inc., report quarterly results on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Those results will arrive after Dollar Tree's $(DLTR)$ planned separation from Family Dollar - following competition from bigger retailers and other issues - and as tariffs threaten to add to low-income consumers' struggles with higher prices.

-Bill Peters

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June 01, 2025 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)

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