By Anita Hamilton

A federal agency charged with estimating the cost of bills passed in the House and Senate released its final estimate for how much the tax and spending bill currently working its way through Congress would affect the federal deficit.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit through 2034. That is the overall effect on the deficit when you subtract outlays from revenue. The estimate is based on the final version of the bill passed by the House of Representatives, which is likely to be revised substantially by the Senate before President Donald Trump signs it into law.

The estimate comes at a critical juncture for the bill. Deficit hawks have expressed concern over the increased spending, and Elon Musk on Tuesday called it an " abomination." A few Republican senators have also criticized its spending, including Kentucky's Rand Paul and Utah's Mike Lee.

As part of its estimate, the CBO says that the net effect of extending the 2017 tax cuts, plus new credits for seniors, no tax on tips, and other tax cuts in the bill will be around $3.76 trillion.

The estimate doesn't include the potential impact of tariff revenue. Trump has previously said tariffs were bringing in about $2 billion a day.

The White House didn't respond to Barron's request for comment on the estimate, but has previously criticized the agency as being partisan and for making inaccurate estimates. The administration has argued that economic growth in the coming years will lower the deficit.

"The Congressional Budget Office has been traditionally wrong," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com

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June 04, 2025 11:00 ET (15:00 GMT)

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