MW Here's what home sellers are doing to counter a brutal buyer's market this summer
By Philip van Doorn
Also, Nvidia's value proposition for investors and five pillars of support for the stock market through 2025
A combination of rising inventory and high mortgage loan rates has changed the U.S. housing market into one in which buyers are well-positioned to make demands. Aarthi Swaminathan shared shocking numbers from Redfin and outlined steps sellers could take to entice buyers.
On the other side of the equation, this market has a silver lining that a particular group of home buyers can take advantage of.
More: Home prices in the biggest 20 markets decline for the first time in over two years. Here's where they're expected to fall the most.
Some backing for stock-market bulls
In any market environment, there will be warnings from the bears and cheerleading by the bulls. This year, the bulls who hung on through the disruption caused by President Donald Trump's initial wave of tariff announcements have been rewarded. Through April 8, the S&P 500 SPX was down 15% for 2025. But through Thursday, the large-cap U.S. benchmark index had recovered enough to show a 1.1% gain for the year. All investment returns in this article include reinvested dividends.
At this point, with U.S. trade policy unsettled and with almost daily policy announcements from of the White House, investors who were patient enough not to sell into the declining market might be wondering if it is time to make a move.
The daily Need to Know column includes observations and advice on what investors and traders should do or what they should avoid. You can sign up to receive the NTK newsletter in your inbox early every morning. One example this week came from John Paulsen, who outlined five pillars of support for further gains in the stock market.
Nvidia as a cheap stock
Shares of Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$ were up nearly 4% for 2025 through Thursday, but the stock had been down as much as 30% for the year through April 4. Leaving aside all the concerns over tariffs and U.S. restrictions on technology exports to China, how can we sum up what has been happening this year with the company that continues to dominate the market for graphics processing units (GPU) that support the development of artificial intelligence technology?
Nvidia exceeded analysts' expectations for sales and earnings when it reported results for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 on Wednesday. But the company's own estimate of $49 billion in sales for the fiscal second quarter was a bit shy of the consensus expectation of $45.9 billion, among analysts polled by FactSet.
Laila Maidan explained why Nvidia's sales guidance was actually strong when all factors were considered and looked at the stock's valuation relative to expected earnings.
In the chart above, you can see how Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio has declined over the past year, even though its stock has returned 21% for that period. This is the ratio of the share price to rolling 12-month consensus earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.
In comparison, the S&P 500 trades at a weighted forward P/E of 21.4. By those measures, Nvidia may appear to be an expensive stock. But an argument can be made that Nvidia's stock is inexpensive based on expected growth rates. For uniform comparisons of estimates, FactSet makes adjustments for companies like Nvidia, whose fiscal years don't match the calendar. On that basis, analysts expect Nvidia's annual revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.9% from 2024 through 2026. For the S&P 500, the estimated revenue CAGR from 2024 through 2026 is 5.5%.
The expected annual sales growth rate for Nvidia through 2026 is very high, but it would represent a slowdown from some eye-popping numbers the company has been putting up over the past two years. When companies announce their results, comparisons are typically made to year-earlier quarters. Here we are showing sequential and year-over-year changes in sales for Nvidia going back to the fiscal quarter that ended in January 2023:
Fiscal quarter ended Sales ($mil) Sequential change Year-over-year change
April 2025 $44,062 12% 69%
Jan. 2025 $39,331 12% 78%
Oct. 2024 $35,082 17% 94%
July 2024 $30,040 15% 122%
April 2024 $26,044 18% 262%
Jan. 2024 $22,103 22% 265%
Oct. 2023 $18,120 34% 206%
July 2023 $13,507 88% 101%
April 2023 $7,192 19% -13%
Jan. 2023 $6,051 2% -21%
Source: FactSet
Nvidia's sales-growth rates have been slowing, but they have remained high. And the analysts' estimated revenue growth pace of 40.9% is still an impressive number when compared with that of the S&P 500.
For earnings per share, Nvidia's expected CAGR from calendar 2024 through 2026 is 41.2%, compared with an expected EPS CAGR of 12% for the S&P 500. Here is how Nvidia's EPS comparisons have been running since the January 2023 fiscal quarter:
Fiscal quarter ended EPS Sequential change Year-over-year change
April 2025 $0.76 -15% 28%
Jan. 2025 $0.89 15% 81%
Oct. 2024 $0.78 17% 110%
July 2024 $0.67 12% 170%
April 2024 $0.60 21% 629%
Jan. 2024 $0.49 33% 764%
Oct. 2023 $0.37 50% 1,263%
July 2023 $0.25 202% 849%
April 2023 $0.08 44% 29%
Jan. 2023 $0.06 110% -52%
Source: FactSet
More Nvidia coverage:
-- Need to Know: Nvidia results are proof the tech sector is worth investor loyalty, says strategist who recommended buying at April lows
-- Lawrence McMillan: The market got an expected boost from Nvidia - though traders mispriced the stock's options again
Another AI play: Dell's earnings outlook blows past expectations, and this number explains why
Tariff travails - stop reacting
U.S. stocks showed a quick bump after the Court of International Trade in New York ruled on Wednesday that Trump didn't have the authority to implement tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. That might have seemed to be a simple outcome, but investors shouldn't expect clear-cut developments when it comes to Trump's trading policies.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the managing director of global FICC research at Barclays, quickly warned investors not to hang their hats on the court ruling.
Sure enough, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled on Thursday that tariffs could remain in place as the Trump administration appealed the Wednesday ruling.
Joy Wiltermuth took a broader look at economic developments, including the tariffs and federal budget negotiations, to consider what investors should do now.
Related coverage:
-- Pharma, chips, other sectors look set to get hit with new tariffs soon, even as courts wrestle with other Trump levies
-- Kohl's plays down tariff worries, but sees consumers trading down to cheaper goods
-- Costco's tariff cure includes cheaper eggs, rerouted items and U.S.-made mattresses
-- Turkey, nuts and Spam are appealing to 'strained' consumers, Hormel says
How about some bitcoin for your 401(k)?
Back in 2022, the Labor Department advised retirement plan fiduciaries to take "extreme care" when considering whether or not to add virtual currencies as investment options. But U.S. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said this week that the 2022 guidance was an "overreach" and the Labor Department would maintain a neutral stance on the subject.
Jessica Hall explained that despite the policy change, retirement-plan administrators were unlikely to move quickly to add cryptocurrency investment options.
In the Fix My Portfolio column, Beth Pinsker took a deeper look into how managers of group retirement plans assess risk and how much exposure to cryptocurrencies they might allow.
The Moneyist tries to help people avoid making (or repeating) mistakes
Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - keeps answering difficult questions from readers facing difficult financial decisions or personal conflicts over money. This week, a couple wrote to him asking how to make use of a large lump sum they were about to receive. They agreed that they needed to pay off a large credit-card debt. But Fottrell redirected the discussion by suggesting the couple work to "understand the reason for the debt so it doesn't happen again." Here are factors that may have led this couple to wind up paying super-high credit-card interest rates.
Another reader described a difficult situation with $39,000 in credit-card debt on a $68,000 annual salary. Here are steps he can take to reduce the debt while taking his entire financial situation into account.
Here are recent estate-planning questions tackled by the Moneyist:
-- My life partner is 18 years my senior. He wants to leave his $4.5 million fortune to me - not his two kids. Do we tell them?
-- 'You never know what might happen': How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance?
MW Here's what home sellers are doing to counter a brutal buyer's market this summer
By Philip van Doorn
Also, Nvidia's value proposition for investors and five pillars of support for the stock market through 2025
A combination of rising inventory and high mortgage loan rates has changed the U.S. housing market into one in which buyers are well-positioned to make demands. Aarthi Swaminathan shared shocking numbers from Redfin and outlined steps sellers could take to entice buyers.
On the other side of the equation, this market has a silver lining that a particular group of home buyers can take advantage of.
More: Home prices in the biggest 20 markets decline for the first time in over two years. Here's where they're expected to fall the most.
Some backing for stock-market bulls
In any market environment, there will be warnings from the bears and cheerleading by the bulls. This year, the bulls who hung on through the disruption caused by President Donald Trump's initial wave of tariff announcements have been rewarded. Through April 8, the S&P 500 SPX was down 15% for 2025. But through Thursday, the large-cap U.S. benchmark index had recovered enough to show a 1.1% gain for the year. All investment returns in this article include reinvested dividends.
At this point, with U.S. trade policy unsettled and with almost daily policy announcements from of the White House, investors who were patient enough not to sell into the declining market might be wondering if it is time to make a move.
The daily Need to Know column includes observations and advice on what investors and traders should do or what they should avoid. You can sign up to receive the NTK newsletter in your inbox early every morning. One example this week came from John Paulsen, who outlined five pillars of support for further gains in the stock market.
Nvidia as a cheap stock
Shares of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) were up nearly 4% for 2025 through Thursday, but the stock had been down as much as 30% for the year through April 4. Leaving aside all the concerns over tariffs and U.S. restrictions on technology exports to China, how can we sum up what has been happening this year with the company that continues to dominate the market for graphics processing units (GPU) that support the development of artificial intelligence technology?
Nvidia exceeded analysts' expectations for sales and earnings when it reported results for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 on Wednesday. But the company's own estimate of $49 billion in sales for the fiscal second quarter was a bit shy of the consensus expectation of $45.9 billion, among analysts polled by FactSet.
Laila Maidan explained why Nvidia's sales guidance was actually strong when all factors were considered and looked at the stock's valuation relative to expected earnings.
In the chart above, you can see how Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio has declined over the past year, even though its stock has returned 21% for that period. This is the ratio of the share price to rolling 12-month consensus earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.
In comparison, the S&P 500 trades at a weighted forward P/E of 21.4. By those measures, Nvidia may appear to be an expensive stock. But an argument can be made that Nvidia's stock is inexpensive based on expected growth rates. For uniform comparisons of estimates, FactSet makes adjustments for companies like Nvidia, whose fiscal years don't match the calendar. On that basis, analysts expect Nvidia's annual revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.9% from 2024 through 2026. For the S&P 500, the estimated revenue CAGR from 2024 through 2026 is 5.5%.
The expected annual sales growth rate for Nvidia through 2026 is very high, but it would represent a slowdown from some eye-popping numbers the company has been putting up over the past two years. When companies announce their results, comparisons are typically made to year-earlier quarters. Here we are showing sequential and year-over-year changes in sales for Nvidia going back to the fiscal quarter that ended in January 2023:
Fiscal quarter ended Sales ($mil) Sequential change Year-over-year change
April 2025 $44,062 12% 69%
Jan. 2025 $39,331 12% 78%
Oct. 2024 $35,082 17% 94%
July 2024 $30,040 15% 122%
April 2024 $26,044 18% 262%
Jan. 2024 $22,103 22% 265%
Oct. 2023 $18,120 34% 206%
July 2023 $13,507 88% 101%
April 2023 $7,192 19% -13%
Jan. 2023 $6,051 2% -21%
Source: FactSet
Nvidia's sales-growth rates have been slowing, but they have remained high. And the analysts' estimated revenue growth pace of 40.9% is still an impressive number when compared with that of the S&P 500.
For earnings per share, Nvidia's expected CAGR from calendar 2024 through 2026 is 41.2%, compared with an expected EPS CAGR of 12% for the S&P 500. Here is how Nvidia's EPS comparisons have been running since the January 2023 fiscal quarter:
Fiscal quarter ended EPS Sequential change Year-over-year change
April 2025 $0.76 -15% 28%
Jan. 2025 $0.89 15% 81%
Oct. 2024 $0.78 17% 110%
July 2024 $0.67 12% 170%
April 2024 $0.60 21% 629%
Jan. 2024 $0.49 33% 764%
Oct. 2023 $0.37 50% 1,263%
July 2023 $0.25 202% 849%
April 2023 $0.08 44% 29%
Jan. 2023 $0.06 110% -52%
Source: FactSet
More Nvidia coverage:
-- Need to Know: Nvidia results are proof the tech sector is worth investor loyalty, says strategist who recommended buying at April lows
-- Lawrence McMillan: The market got an expected boost from Nvidia - though traders mispriced the stock's options again
Another AI play: Dell's earnings outlook blows past expectations, and this number explains why
Tariff travails - stop reacting
U.S. stocks showed a quick bump after the Court of International Trade in New York ruled on Wednesday that Trump didn't have the authority to implement tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. That might have seemed to be a simple outcome, but investors shouldn't expect clear-cut developments when it comes to Trump's trading policies.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the managing director of global FICC research at Barclays, quickly warned investors not to hang their hats on the court ruling.
Sure enough, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled on Thursday that tariffs could remain in place as the Trump administration appealed the Wednesday ruling.
Joy Wiltermuth took a broader look at economic developments, including the tariffs and federal budget negotiations, to consider what investors should do now.
Related coverage:
-- Pharma, chips, other sectors look set to get hit with new tariffs soon, even as courts wrestle with other Trump levies
-- Kohl's plays down tariff worries, but sees consumers trading down to cheaper goods
-- Costco's tariff cure includes cheaper eggs, rerouted items and U.S.-made mattresses
-- Turkey, nuts and Spam are appealing to 'strained' consumers, Hormel says
How about some bitcoin for your 401(k)?
Back in 2022, the Labor Department advised retirement plan fiduciaries to take "extreme care" when considering whether or not to add virtual currencies as investment options. But U.S. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said this week that the 2022 guidance was an "overreach" and the Labor Department would maintain a neutral stance on the subject.
Jessica Hall explained that despite the policy change, retirement-plan administrators were unlikely to move quickly to add cryptocurrency investment options.
In the Fix My Portfolio column, Beth Pinsker took a deeper look into how managers of group retirement plans assess risk and how much exposure to cryptocurrencies they might allow.
The Moneyist tries to help people avoid making (or repeating) mistakes
Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - keeps answering difficult questions from readers facing difficult financial decisions or personal conflicts over money. This week, a couple wrote to him asking how to make use of a large lump sum they were about to receive. They agreed that they needed to pay off a large credit-card debt. But Fottrell redirected the discussion by suggesting the couple work to "understand the reason for the debt so it doesn't happen again." Here are factors that may have led this couple to wind up paying super-high credit-card interest rates.
Another reader described a difficult situation with $39,000 in credit-card debt on a $68,000 annual salary. Here are steps he can take to reduce the debt while taking his entire financial situation into account.
Here are recent estate-planning questions tackled by the Moneyist:
-- My life partner is 18 years my senior. He wants to leave his $4.5 million fortune to me - not his two kids. Do we tell them?
-- 'You never know what might happen': How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance?
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2025 11:25 ET (15:25 GMT)
MW Here's what home sellers are doing to counter -2-
-- 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will?
What to stream in June - and how to cut streaming expenses
Mike Murphy writes the What's Worth Streaming column, which provides a monthly look at the most compelling new offerings. For June, he highlighted the opportunity for "strategic churning," which means taking an active role in managing subscriptions to avoid wasting money while watching the best new shows.
Want more from MarketWatch? Sign up for this and other newsletters to get the latest news and advice on personal finance and investing.
-Philip van Doorn
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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May 30, 2025 11:25 ET (15:25 GMT)
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