We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. To wit, the Supply Network Limited (ASX:SNL) share price has soared 844% over five years. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. It's also good to see the share price up 13% over the last quarter. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Supply Network managed to grow its earnings per share at 32% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 57% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 46.70.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Supply Network has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Supply Network's TSR for the last 5 years was 991%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
It's nice to see that Supply Network shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 79% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 61%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Supply Network better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Supply Network .
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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