Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0417 ET - The performance of Swiss watch exports in April was artificially inflated by what looks like large volumes of shipments into the U.S. likely as brands aimed to ship inventory ahead of tariffs, UBS analysts write in a research note. Total exports of Swiss timepieces jumped more than 18% in April compared with the prior-year period, boosted by a rise of more than 149% in the U.S. "This makes the underlying trends in the U.S. market difficult to decipher given uncertain consumer sentiment," they say. Trends in the coming months will be key to watch in an environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainty, UBS adds. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

0405 ET - Gold futures slump, extending losses seen on Monday's session after President Trump delayed tariffs on the European Union. Futures are down 2.1% at $3,293.90 a troy ounce, though they remain up more than 22% in the year to date. Signs that Trump is easing his stance on trade with the EU has dented safe-haven demand, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Nevertheless, erratic trade policies from the U.S. are creating uncertainty across global markets, which should support safe-haven demand for gold over the long run, ANZ says. Other geopolitical flashpoints could further boost investor demand, as Germany has given Ukraine the go-ahead to strike deep inside Russian territory, analysts add. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0345 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds--or gilts--fall, tracking moves in eurozone bonds, as trade tensions ease after the U.S. delayed the implementation of a 50% tariff on European Union imports from June 1 to July 9. Following the extension of the deadline, "long-end yields are experiencing some relief," ING's Benjamin Schroeder says in a note. The 10-year gilt yield falls 7 basis points to last trade at 4.619%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0248 ET - The dollar falls as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs remains elevated. President Trump on Friday said he planned to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1, then on Sunday he pushed back the deadline to July 9. Trump could walk back on the levy but markets need to price in at least some probability of prolonged, high tariffs, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown says in a note. In an environment where market participants seemingly need little excuse to further trim their U.S. exposure, the DXY dollar index could fall to 98.000, he says. The DXY last trades down 0.1% at 99.027 after hitting a one-month low of 98.694 on Monday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0219 ET - The likelihood of trade difficulties between the U.S. and Europe is the reason that Citi rates strategists expect the 10-year Bund yield to hover around 2.5% for now, they say in a note. They hold on to 2.5% as an anchor level for the 10-year Bund yield. However, they consider a fall of the 10-year Bund yield to 2.2% possible "if there is lasting re-escalation." U.S. President Trump delayed the implementation of 50% tariffs on European goods until July 9 from June 1. The 10-year Bund yield falls 1.4 bps to trade at 2.545%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

2149 ET - Apple and its iPhone supply chain could be one of the biggest beneficiaries if a trade deal between the U.S. and India is announced in the coming weeks, Wedbush analysts led by Daniel Ives say in a report. Despite Trump's tariff threats against Apple products, the move to quickly pivot iPhone production and assembly to India was probably the smartest move Apple could make, they say. Moving iPhone production in the U.S. is a "non-starter" as it would drive iPhone prices to around $3,500 and would take around 5-10 years, Wedbush adds. "With Cook being 10% politician and 90% CEO... we believe Apple will continue to navigate this complex tariff situation in a game of negotiations with the Trump Administration," Wedbush adds. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

1939 ET - The Trump administration's threatened 50% tariff on imports from the EU would immediately add 0.2 percentage point to core PCE in the U.S., ANZ says in a note to clients. The tariffs would boost core PCE by 0.3 percentage point-0.4 percentage point over 2025, it adds. ANZ expects that June is too early for the FOMC to cut rates and that it will need to watch trade talks and the impact of tariffs on prices and the labor market. The FOMC will most likely delay a cut until 3Q, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1211 ET - Gold futures fall as markets respond positively to President Trump's delay of European Union tariffs. Futures are down 0.8% at $3,339.10 a troy ounce, but remain up more than 3% on week, having jumped on Trump's Friday threats of 50% levies against the bloc. The 27-nation EU adds up to the largest U.S. trade partner, ahead of Mexico, Canada and China. The decision on Sunday to delay the tariffs until July 9, from June 1, has buoyed European markets, easing safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Gold remains up more than 24% year-to-date on market volatility and inconsistent U.S. trade policies. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1103 ET - Trade tensions are redrawing Canadian's travel plans, which promises to boost spending closer to home and may lead to a potentially wider net U.S. trade deficit, Royal Bank of Canada's Clair Fan suggests. The economist says the "buy Canadian" movement in response to U.S. trade policies is showing up in travel data and points to a persistent decline in the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. in 2025. April saw a steep fall with Canadians returning from the U.S. by air falling 20% on-year and return car trips slumping 26%. That may mean upside for Canadian tourism this year, Fan says. Canadians on average spend more in the U.S. than American tourists spend in Canada. And it's s shift not unique to Canadians, as arrivals to the U.S. from countries other than Canada and Mexico has fallen. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0810 ET - Gold futures fall as President Trump extends the U.S. tariff deadline on goods from the EU. Futures are down 1% at $3,333.60 a troy ounce. Trump said on Sunday that he would delay a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9, improving market risk sentiment and lowering safe-haven demand. That said, the precious metal remains up more than 3% on week, having made gains after Trump said on Friday that talks with the bloc were "going nowhere" and unexpectedly threatened additional duties on goods. The EU is the U.S.'s largest trading partner when taken as a bloc and rising tensions could easily spark a broader selloff in risk assets, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0655 ET - From a historical perspective, there's nothing sinister about recent falls in the U.S. dollar, says Eurizon SLJ Capital's Stephen Li Jen in a note. "Despite global upheavals, the U.S. dollar remains the dominant reserve currency," the CEO says. The dollar has traded between around $0.83 and $1.60 against the euro in the past 25 years and throughout this period there was little talk about the dollar losing its hegemonic status as a reserve or international currency, he says. However, the dollar's share in the world's reserve holdings should drift lower, albeit retaining its number-one spot, he says. Eurizon SLJ Capital sees fair value for the euro against the dollar between $1.20 and $1.25. The euro is last up 0.1% at $1.1380. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0634 ET - The dollar falls on Monday and is likely to remain under pressure as traders diversify away from U.S. assets, ActivTrades says in a note. Investors are responding to volatile tariff decisions and growing fiscal risks in the U.S., particularly after Congress passed the Trump administation's tax-cutting bill, they say. "Downside potential remains for the dollar as market participants respond to the continued policy uncertainty by shedding U.S.-denominated assets," ActivTrades says. The DXY dollar index earlier hit a one-month low of 98.694 as Washington's decision to postpone a 50% tariff on EU products to July 9 from June 1 boosts the euro and other risk-related currencies. It last trades down 0.1% at 99.001. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 27, 2025 04:17 ET (08:17 GMT)

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