EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX broadly higher amid US debt concerns; commodities pressure stocks

Reuters
23 May
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX broadly higher amid US debt concerns; commodities pressure stocks

LATAM FX steady, stocks down 0.5%

Mexico's headline inflation rises

Ukraine bonds slip as tensions escalate

Updates with mid-session prices

By Nikhil Sharma and Purvi Agarwal

May 22 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies broadly strengthened against the dollar on Thursday, as investors assessed the implications of mounting U.S. fiscal debt, while stocks were weighed down by commodity prices.

Trepidation over America's ballooning national debt intensified as the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump's tax and spending overhaul, a bill anticipated to significantly increase the country's debt burden.

This mounting fiscal pressure was a key catalyst behind Moody's decision last week to strip the U.S. of its top-tier credit rating.

Investors, already skittish from Trump's unpredictable tariff pronouncements, are trimming exposure to U.S. assets in a bid to cultivate more geographically diversified portfolios and piling into EM assets.

"Latam currencies are not a speculative assets. The confidence right now is momentary because we have seen recent weakness in the dollar, but due to political problems that we have in the region, the competency will not maintain for the long term," said Julian Pineda, market analyst at StoneX.

On the day, the Argentinian peso ARS=RASL was up 1% against the dollar.

The country is easing foreign currency reporting rules to encourage residents to start using an estimated $271 billion in cash dollars, long held as a hedge against economic turmoil.

Mexico's peso MXN= ticked up 0.2% after the country's headline inflation rose more than expected in the first half of May, data showed, jumping outside the central bank's target range for the first time this year.

Separate data revealed the economy shrank 0.4% in March from February, while expanding 2.5% from March of 2024.

These indicators throw a wrench into the Bank of Mexico's monetary easing ambitions. The central bank, having last week delivered a 50-basis-point cut to its benchmark rate and hinted at further reductions, now faces a delicate balancing act.

"Today’s data should be neutral for policy, especially considering that the next Banxico decision is over a month from now... we keep our expectation of a 50bp cut in that meeting," said analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Currencies in Chile CLP= and Peru PEN= strengthened 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, against the greenback, despite a dip in copper prices.

The Colombian peso COP= slipped 0.3% as oil prices fell on global supply risks following a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July. O/R

Brazil's real BRL= slipped 0.2%. A government report highlighted the need to contain 31.3 billion reais ($5.58 billion) in this year's budget to comply with the country's fiscal rules.

The country's central bank, which hiked rates earlier this month without providing any forward guidance, stressed the need for stable inflation before it could halt its policy tightening cycle.

Among stocks, ones in Mexico .MXX fell 1.3%, with Walmart's Mexico unit WALMEX.MX down 2% and bottle maker FEMSA FEMSAUBD.MX off 1.9%. Miner Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB.MX shed 1%.

Colombia's stock index .COLCAP dipped 0.8%, while heavyweight Brazilian equities .BVSP were down 0.3% with energy and mining constituents bearing the brunt of the sell-off.

MSCI's gauge for regional equities .MILA00000PUS extended its slide from the prior session, shedding 0.5%.

Revenue from commodity exports such as copper, iron ore, crude oil and agricultural products is a key income for Latin American economies.

Elsewhere, Ukraine's bonds with 2035 XS2895057177=TE and 2036 XS2895057334=TE maturity fell more than 1 cent to the dollar as tension with Russia escalated after Moscow said it had shot down 105 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions, including dozens heading towards Moscow.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1165.06

-0.81

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2244.85

-0.51

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

137419.91

-0.33

Mexico IPC .MXX

57833.4

-1.25

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8361.85

-0.67

Argentina Merval .MERV

2314477.82

-0.22

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1636.09

-0.81

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.6576

-0.23

Mexico peso MXN=

19.3045

0.24

Chile peso CLP=

942.26

0.13

Colombia peso COP=

4176.5

-0.28

Peru sol PEN=

3.658

0.54

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1135.5

0.97

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1145

2.62

(Reporting by Nikhil Sharma and Pranav Kashyap, Editing by Ed Osmond and Vijay Kishore)

((Nikhil.Sharma@thomsonreuters.com;))

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